Ervin Santana has given up no more than one earned run in 10 of his 13 starts, so I'll definitely back him at home if the odds are reasonable, as they are here. Mariners pitcher Sam Gaviglio has a 2.79 ERA in 29 innings, but his 5.42 FIP suggests that's a mirage and that negative regression is coming.

This number is so high because of the last two games in this series between the Twins and Mariners, which saw 44 combined runs scored. But those games featured below-average pitchers dealing to hot lineups, which led to the offensive onslaught. But Wednesday, with Sam Gaviglio of Seattle and Ervin Santana going for Minnesota, we should see this one go Under. Gaviglio has been a little lucky in his five starts but still sports an ERA of just 2.79, and Santana has an ERA of just 2.20.