Mariners pitching has excelled over the last few weeks, as they've given up more than four runs just twice in their last 13 games (and those "stinkers" featured just five and six runs allowed). With the pitching performing well, they should be expected to win any game against a mediocre starter, and Kyle Gibson (6.52 ERA) certainly qualifies. The Twins have been excellent on the road but have struggled at Target Field (12-19).

Mariners starter Christian Bergman had one disastrous start at Washington in late May. Other than that, he's been dynamite. Seattle is winning 60 percent of my simulations on Tuesday at Minnesota. Back the M's.