The only time to consider laying 1.5 runs is with an ace like Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers going on the road with a reduced price. Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer has been erratic, as evidenced by his whopping 6.10 ERA and 5-5 record. He is overmatched in this one, and I like the value price wagering Los Angeles to win by two or more runs.

I don't bet many games with a price steeper than -140 but. when I feel a game is off by 20 cents or more, I have to take action. Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw is offered at a rather cheap price Tuesday at Cleveland. There is too much credit given for the Indians’ home field and their starter, Trevor Bauer. The Dodgers have won 11 of Kershaw's 13 starts, including his past seven. He has allowed one or zero runs in five of them. This will be his first-ever start at Cleveland, and he’s a bargain to win it.

The wOBA model agrees with a profitable Under betting trend in games between winning teams. Take the Under 8 with Clayton Kershaw on the mound and two elite bullpens.

I relish the opportunity to bet on Clayton Kershaw, and that opportunity presents itself Tuesday night in Cleveland. With the Dodgers winning 75 percent of my simulations, I'll gladly lay the -165. L.A. is 44-12 in Kershaw's last 56 starts.