The Nationals have lost the last four starts by Gio Gonzalez, but I like that trend to change Tuesday against the Giants, who were held scoreless in the series opener. Jeff Samardzija has been solid of late, but inconsistent all season, and allowed three homers to the Cubs in his last start. The team has own just one of his last six home starts against winning teams, and he is 2-8 in Game 2 of a series. Washington is a value pick as an underdog here.

The Nationals have stayed Under in eight of the last nine, including their last six games. This is thanks to the rotation and bullpen being in shutdown mode – allowing just 14 runs combined in the last eight games. But the 17 mph winds blowing out to center at AT&T Park are going to be tough on both pitching staffs Tuesday. Over is the play.

Gio Gonzalez owns a 2.94 ERA in 11 career starts against the Giants, and I like the Nationals at even money on Tuesday night against slumping San Fran. In my simulations, Washington is winning 60 percent of the time.