I had no doubt this total would go up! Kyle Gibson is back from the minors, and I suspect his control issues will resurface. He and Ubaldo Jimenez allow a lot of baserunners, meaning we just need a couple key hits from two pretty good hitting teams. The Orioles are averaging 6.1 runs over their last seven games. Go Over.

The total has climbed to 10 on this game, largely due to the weather forecast calling for 85% humidity. The wOBA model still only has this game projected for 8.8 total runs even with two average pitchers and high humidity. This is also a great spot to fade the public with the overwhelming majority of tickets on the Over. Take the Under.

Kyle Gibson sports an 8.20 ERA and a .419 on-base percentage allowed; he's in for a rough outing at Baltimore as the Orioles look to improve on their 15-4 home mark. Back the Orioles.

The Orioles are covering this run line in 41 percent of my simulations, making them a worthwhile play at +155 on Monday night versus visiting Minnesota. Back Baltimore on the run line.