With the ball flying out of ballparks at a record pace, it's not hard finding games to go Over on. Cleveland has averaged 5.7 runs over its last seven games, going over five times in that span. Cincy is 26-15-2 to the Over this season. This is another matchup of average pitchers. Note that Josh Tomlin has allowed 42 home runs over his last 214 innings. Scott Feldman is 34 and nothing special. Go Over.

In addition to the money line, I'm playing the Reds on the run line. Getting 1.5 runs, Cincinnati is covering 71 percent of my simulations and worth a play at -155.

The Reds are winning 55 percent of my simulations, making them a strong play at +116. Back Cincy at home.

The Indians are the better team here with a much better bullpen. The league shift to the National League will only help the Indians starting pitching. Feldman has been great this season, but he's not prepared for this Cleveland offense. This AL vs. NL system is now 512-340,60% (ROI:13%) overall and 13-5,72% (ROI:31%) this season.