Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
I look forward to every opportunity I have to fade Dylan Bundy this season. Based on xwOBA he's been one of the most lucky pitchers in baseball in 2017. A day game in Detroit is the perfect spot to bet on regression. Speaking of regression, Jordan Zimmermann is another regression candidate as he's pitched significantly worse than his career profile this season. You're getting great value on the home team with Miguel Cabrera out of the lineup. With JD Martinez back for the Tigers you're getting them at essentially the same strength they have been on average this season. Back the Tigers as home dogs and fade the public here.
Jordan Zimmermann has given up nine homers in seven games and has given up four runs in each of his last two starts. He's a ripe starter to bet against and this afternoon he's facing Dylan Bundy, who has been on his game all year with quality starts in all eight appearances --- just 13 total runs allowed. Baltimore has won six of those. Orioles win today, too.
My simulations have the Orioles winning their Thursday game against the Tigers at least 58 percent of the time. This gives us a strong value position on Baltimore at the meager price. The Orioles have won four straight Thursday games and are 5-1 in Dylan Bundy’s last six starts. The Tigers are 3-7 in the last 10 starts by Jordan Zimmermann.