Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
The Cardinals are covering plus 1.5 runs in 73 percent of my simulations, making them a strong play at -160. Back St. Louis on the run line.
Red Sox starter Rick Porcello is having a Cy Young hangover, and the Red Sox have lost five of his last six starts. He comes off a home loss to the Rays in which he allowed five runs. His pitcher rating is slowly being downgraded after each start, but it still manages to be better than his St. Louis counterpart, Mike Leake. He has allowed just five runs in four home starts. The value play Wednesday is on Leake and the Cardinals.
The wOBA model likes Rick Porcello to have a little positive regression with a large park and league shift in the NL park in St. Louis. This game also meets the criteria for a very profitable interleague play system that strongly favors the American League team.
Boston starter Rick Porcello has struggled thus far, allowing nine homers in his past seven starts, including four in one game against Tampa Bay. But he has been solid on the road, allowing just four combined earned runs in his last three outings. St. Louis is 1-7 in the past eight home starts by Mike Leake, and has lost six straight of his outings against winning teams.