Six of Adam Wainwright's seven starts have gone Over the total, and Jake Arrieta has the same track record, so why overthink too hard here with the total Sunday? Arrieta has given up 29 runs in 38 innings. Wainwright has allowed four or more runs in five of his last six starts. Over is the play.

We have two pitchers who have regressed in their careers. And they're facing above-average offenses. Jake Arrieta is nowhere near the guy he was two years ago, while Adam Wainwright is below-average now. Go Over.

Jake Arrieta is 8-2 with a 1.71 ERA lifetime against the Cardinals. Adam Wainwright is nothing like the pitcher he used to be. I'm on the Cubs in the rubber game.