Past Picks
Solid cash in La Liga today with Alaves. For Monday, the visitors are without two projected regulars in the midfield in Stefan Bajcetic and Aleix Fabas. As it is, Celta Vigo is winless in four (two draws) with a single goal. Getafe owns a home win in three total matches.
Both sides are unbeaten in three La Liga matches (two wins and a draw apiece), but Alaves is +4 in goal differential and Osasuna, which I really just like saying, is at +2. Do I somewhat think this draws? They drew at Alaves last year and kinda expect the same, but that's the beauty of DNB. I've decided that I just am not capable of wagering to draw. Not my cup of tea. Both squads seemed to get weaker via the transfer market -- the first games after that closes are always a bit tricky.
For some reason, I just don’t trust Villarreal’s defense right now. They conceded to Deportivo Alaves, gave up two to Atletico Madrid, and allowed two more against Racing Santander. Two of their first three matches have gone over the total. You could play this a little safer and take both teams to score, but I think Villarreal can get to two goals on its own in this spot. If Deportivo La Coruna finds the back of the net once, we’re in a pretty good position to cash the over. Villarreal has enough attacking quality to do its part, and I don’t trust this defense further than I can throw it.
My first instinct in this match is to bet the over, but that 3.5 total feels just a little too high. I don’t think Betis is going to open this game up and let Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior run wild. This feels like a match where the home side slows things down, stays compact and tries to hang around until late. I’m OK if this one blows up in my face because I think I’m getting a number that has gone a touch too far. Madrid is also on the road, where goals are usually a little harder to come by, and its defense has shown some real muscle early this season. It’ll probably be sweaty, but I’m betting the under.
It's hard to explain how much DNB influences me in soccer now -- basically how I use -1 in the NHL. I'd rather pay a fair amount more for that draw insurance. And this number is still a good 40 cents lower than some other books on Real Sociedad for Thursday in La Liga. In 12 league games at home under American coach Pellegrino Matarazzo (not a tenor with that moniker?), Real Sociedad has just two defeats and drew in one this year. Celta de Vigo hasn't looked good with an opening scoreless away draw and then back-to-back home losses -- a single goal scored thus far by Iago Aspas. Sociedad won 3-1 at home in the series last season (drew away).
Real Sociedad beat Celta Vigo 3-1 when these teams met at Anoeta Stadium in January. Very little has changed since then, as both clubs were pretty inactive during the summer transfer window. Real Sociedad returned to winning ways by beating Espanyol 2-1 last weekend, courtesy of two assists from star forward Mikel Oyarzabal. Celta Vigo remain winless this season, and they could struggle on the road against a technically superior Real Sociedad team.
Well a 3 popped, so now have to do a half-unit. Barca may well win 6-0, but transfer addition Gabriel Jesus will not make his debut yet. Rayo Vallecano has a home draw to Alaves and close loss at Sevilla in the early going. It gave Barcelona trouble last season with a 1-0 road loss and 1-1 home draw. Barca hasn't won by more than three in the series since 2016.
Sunday was one of my best soccer days ever, so hopefully can carry that over into this La Liga match Monday. The hosts are unbeaten in two thus far (one draw) and have allowed only a goal. Appears to be a full roster for Osasuna. Fifth match in 16 days for Getafe as it also is competing in UEFA Conference League qualifying. Its lone La Liga away match thus far was a 3-0 loss at Alaves. The visitors have a few player availability concerns. Would have been interested in Under 2.5 -- our model basically has a 1-1 draw -- but the total is set at 1.5.
Sevilla have made a strong start to the new season, beating Rayo Vallecano 2-1 and Athletic Club 3-1 in their first two games. They struggle to keep clean sheets, but they're dangerous in attack. Atlético Madrid are also unbeaten so far, as they beat Málaga 2-0 in their opener and then drew 2-2 with Villarreal last weekend. Los Rojiblancos are also vulnerable in defense these days, but the Atlético squad is stacked with elite attackers, so they’re often involved in entertaining games. Over 2.5 goals has paid off in the last four meetings between Sevilla and Atlético Madrid, so this should be another high-scoring clash.
Big number but probably will end up closing low. Wouldn't do this as a straight ML. It's the home opener for Celta Vigo, which drew at Valencia in the season opener Saturday but deserved to win. It has drawn or won 10 of its past 11 including friendlies. Short week for Osasuna as it drew its season and home opener vs. Levante on Monday and was largely dominated. Goalkeeper Mathew Ryan had to make seven saves to keep it scoreless. The sides split last season, each winning away. The original Aug. 16 opener between them was postponed because fungus damaged the Balaídos pitch. A fungi postponement is similar to how the excellent end of the world show "The Last of Us" begins.
Jose Mourinho’s side is anything but a finished product, but I love this spot for Madrid in the home opener. The attack should have every opportunity to get going against a Real Sociedad side that did not exactly inspire confidence during preseason. Naturally, I looked toward the Madrid team total first, but I prefer laying the -1.5 here. Sociedad struggled throughout its warmup matches, and this feels like a difficult place to suddenly figure things out. Madrid should control possession, create plenty of chances and eventually pull away. I have this finishing somewhere in the 3-0 or 3-1 range, which makes Madrid -1.5 my preferred way to play it.
It's Malaga's first home game in the main division of La Liga in eight years, so that atmosphere alone should be good enough for a draw against a visiting side that is also up from the Segunda Division. When they played at that level last year, Malaga won 3-0 at home. They have met 22 times in official competition overall at La Rosaleda, and Deportivo owns just three wins.
Season opener for both, and backing home teams in La Liga so far has been wise. Not that I'd most likely play a road team. Real Betis finished 14 spots higher in the 2025-26 table. The Green-and-Whites, who beat Arsenal in a recent friendly, had the fifth-most home points in the league last campaign. Real Sociedad had three road wins in 19 tries. And the visitors are quite banged up for an opener, missing regulars in Gonçalo Guedes (8G, 1A) and Jon Gorrotxategi (1G, 3A) -- that latter one could be my last name, and I'd still spell it wrong. Betis has easily won the past two in Seville in the series.
Alaves looked a lot better in its opener than Rayo Vallecano did, but Alaves was home and its opponent in Getafe was down to 10 men late in first half. I sure like betting teams in their home openers in American sports, so why not deportes españoles también? Rayo was a tough-luck road loser near the death at Sevilla, 2-1, on a penalty in its opener but has won the past four in this series at home and four of the past five in it overall.
It starts against Malaga, a team Atletico have beaten in six of their last seven meetings. Atletico have scored nine goals in their last five matches but haven’t kept a clean sheet, so BTTS and Over 2.5 are both interesting. Still, I want to target Atletico’s team total. With Almada, Lookman, Kang-in Lee and Grimaldo, there’s plenty of attacking talent. I have Atletico winning something like 3-1 or 4-1.