Week 8 College Football odds, predictions: Parlay picks, best bets for SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, Pac-12 for the weekend of October 22nd, 2022

Last weekend there were six ranked vs. ranked games and truth be told, if you don't think Saturday, October 15th, 2022 was one of the greatest sports days in recent memory, I don't know what to tell you. While the postseason baseball drama was also fantastic, nothing could've prepared me, and most of us in general, for what we saw from three of those incredible matchups. While Penn State-Michigan, NC State-Syracuse and Mississippi State-Kentucky were bad to average games at best, Alabama-Tennessee, Oklahoma State-TCU, and USC-Utah absolutely stole the show. Between those three games, 269 points were scored. Think about that, six highly ranked teams and each nearly averaged 45 a piece! We won't see anything like it anytime soon.

My thoughts on what those results mean for each of those teams and the rest of their 2022 futures:

Tennessee 52, Alabama 49
The absolute definition of a see-saw affair. Both teams played incredibly well and after the Volunteers' game-winning kick by Chase McGrath, the scenes in Knoxville looked truly amazing. (PS - are the goalposts still floating in the river?) For Bama, there is no longer any room for error in the Crimson Tide's quest to make the College Football Playoff. It's harder to see them surviving the next three games (Mississippi State, at LSU, at Ole Miss) unscathed but if they do, a victory in the SEC Championship Game should put them in the final four. For the Vols, the schedule looks friendly (to say the least) outside of a trip to Georgia on November 5th. If they can play the Bulldogs within two touchdowns, Ole Miss loses at least once (very likely), and Alabama loses again, I think there's a 75% chance a one-loss Tennessee is in the playoff.

TCU 43, Oklahoma State 40 (2 OT)
An absolute fourth quarter collapse did in the Cowboys, who were in control throughout. The Big 12 likely isn't strong enough to propel a one-loss OSU team over other one-loss teams, or even a two-loss SEC team like Alabama. They're playing for a trip to the Big 12 Championship Game and possible Sugar Bowl berth at best. TCU must go 13-0 to get themselves to the Playoff (a la Cincinnati last year despite the stronger conference), and with ranked opponents Kansas State and Texas left, a trip to Baylor, plus the conference title game, their chances don't seem great. As I predicted in last week's column, a rematch of these two teams on December 1st seems probable.

Utah 43, USC 42
Like Oklahoma State, USC was mostly in control throughout the game before the Utes stormed back in the second half and surprisingly went for two with under a minute left to provide the winning point. Despite the loss, if USC runs the table (and outside of a trip to UCLA on 11/19, they should), they'll be in the mix for a CFP spot. They shouldn't be penalized too much for a close loss on the road in one of the more difficult stadium environments west of the Mississippi River. If Utah wins out despite having two losses, including a trip to Oregon on 11/19, they'll be in the Pac-12 Championship Game with a trip to the Rose Bowl once again on the line.

A subpar 5-8 week puts me four games below even at 50-54-1. It's now or never to get back on track. While the matchups this week aren't as exciting as we saw in Week 7, there are still five games of ranked vs. ranked teams:
- No. 14 Syracuse at No. 5 Clemson
- No. 9 UCLA at No. 10 Oregon
- No. 20 Texas at No. 11 Oklahoma State
- No. 24 Mississippi State at No. 6 Alabama
- No. 17 Kansas State at No. 8 TCU

I'll have a point spread or over/under pick for each one, plus many more with a chance at redemption in Week 8!

Once again, the purpose of this column each week is to find the best parlay bets by conference. I'll try to keep each wager between two and four picks, but the combined parlay of my favorite picks at the bottom of the column each week will be our lottery ticket. If we hit even just one of those all season, it should get us a guaranteed season profit.

All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.

Make sure to check out Wildcat Country, my Arizona Wildcats podcast with co-host Shane Dale! New episodes out weekly.

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SEC parlay picks

Ole Miss-LSU Under 66
Mississippi State-Alabama Under 61
Parlay Odds: +264 (2 units)

I like this Ole Miss-LSU Under more than I probably should. Ole Miss was 0-4 to the Under before the last two weeks and LSU was 0-5 before last week's scoring-fest against Florida. I'm not saying we won't see the upper 50's here, but I don't see both teams cracking 30. Last year's game was 31-17 Ole Miss. Are you ready for the stat of all stats? No MSU-Alabama game has exceeded 60 combined points since 1993! Why would anything change this year? In the last four years against the Crimson Tide, Mississippi State has combined for 16 total points. Might be another ugly one with 'Bama wanting to prove their defense is still elite after last week's debacle. This is a small card, but I like them both a lot this week.

Game Record: 1-2 last week, 9-12 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 1 of 7 overall (-1.29 units)

BIG TEN parlay picks

Iowa-Ohio State Over 49
Northwestern-Maryland Under 51
Penn State -5 vs. Minnesota
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

Since Week 1, Ohio State's offense hasn't scored less than 45 points. In that case, all we need is an Iowa TD to cover this Over. Seems simple, right? Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa is out with a sprained MCL and therefore expect the Terrapins to be held under 30 points by Northwestern. On the other side, the Wildcats have combined for 28 points over their last three games, including a brutal home loss to Miami OH. This one has 24-13 written all over it. I'm not sure of the statuses of the QBs in the Minnesota-Penn State game after both Tanner Morgan and Sean Clifford were injured in losses last week. In front of a White Out night crowd at Beaver Stadium, I just don't see the Nittany Lions losing or not covering the 5-point spread.

Game Record: 2-1 last week, 10-12 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 7 overall (-8.5 units)

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ACC parlay picks

Syracuse-Clemson Over 50
Pittsburgh ML (+110) at Louisville
Parlay Odds: +310 (2 units)

Clemson has scored at least 30 points in every game this season and is 4-1-1 to the Over, including 2-0 at home. Syracuse has played one road game and dropped 48 against hapless UConn. I very well could see this one squeaking by the total, somewhere in the 34-20 range. This is more of a gut feel pick on my part, so proceed carefully. I was big on the Pitt train before the season started and I still think they're among the ACC's four best teams. I'm not sure why they're underdogs at Lousiville, but the line is absolutely wrong as I see it. I'll take them outright to win confidently.

Game Record: 1-1 last week, 10-10 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 7 overall (-9 units)

BIG 12 parlay picks

West Virginia-Texas Tech Over 67.5
Oklahoma State +6 vs. Texas
TCU -3.5 vs. Kansas State
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

Doesn't WVU-TT scream of a game that ends 51-49? The Red Raiders are 4-1 to the Over this year, including 2-0 at home and 3-0 when the line is 60+. It feels like almost a certainty that one of these teams, likely Tech, drops at least 40. The oddsmakers are buying into Texas despite them almost losing at home last week to Iowa State. I'm confident that Cowboys QB Spencer Sanders will play, and if so, this line should almost be flipped. I was tempted to take OK State's moneyline, as I think they'll likely win, but instead I'll gladly take nearly a touchdown spread at home. Kansas State has been fantastic since the inexcusable home loss to now-ranked Tulane. But the Horned Frogs are playing at a different level and with even more momentum, having rallied from two touchdowns down to beat Oklahoma State last week. I'm still not and probably never will be an Adrian Martinez fan, so give me TCU by 10 at home.

Game Record: 0-2 last week, 11-9-1 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 7 overall (-7.5 units)

PAC-12 parlay picks

UCLA-Oregon Over 69.5
Oregon State -24 vs. Colorado
California +7.5 vs. Washington
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

This is a common theme in this column, but let's keep it rolling. The Ducks have scored at least 41 points in every game since the Georgia opening-week beatdown. In four of those five games, the combined totals have surpassed 70 points. On the other hand, UCLA has scored less than 40 only once this year, a 32-31 home squeaker over South Alabama. Maybe the Bruins are better than I've constantly given them credit for? Their No. 9 ranking certainly proves that halfway through the season. It's likely Oregon wins and similarly likely that both teams surpass 35 points each. Oregon State is 3-0 against the spread at home and Colorado is 0-3 ATS on the road. It was a nice home upset win for the Buffaloes over California, but reality sets back in this weekend. 38-7 Beavers. Speaking of Cal, they're simply getting too many points at home against a team that doesn't play much defense at all. While I was tempted to go with the Over 56.5 since no Under has hit in a Washington game this season, I think the Golden Bears have a sneaky chance at pulling the upset during 'Pac-12 After Dark.'

Game Record: 1-2 last week, 10-11 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 7 overall (-9.5 units)

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Week 8 College Football parlay picks

Mississippi State-Alabama Under 61
Iowa-Ohio State Over 49
Pittsburgh ML (+110) at Louisville
Oklahoma State +6 vs. Texas
TCU -3.5 vs. Kansas State
UCLA-Oregon Over 69.5
California +7.5 vs. Washington

Parlay Odds: +10309 (0.5 units)
Weekly Parlay Record: 0 of 7 overall (-3.5 units)

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