Week 3 Fantasy Football Helper: RB Rankings and DFS Plays

If you're starting your Fantasy football Week 3 research or working on DFS lineups for this weekend's games, you NEED to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs' Fantasy football draft rankings were the seventh-most accurate in the nation in 2019, per FantasyPros, and he is back with his exclusive Week 1 Fantasy Football Helper for SportsLine users.

Last season, Gibbs projected big-time breakouts for Lamar Jackson, Chris Godwin, and Dalvin Cook. He also identified Darren Waller as the top late-round tight end. Anyone who followed Gibbs' draft advice in 2019 was well on their way to a league title.

Now, Gibbs has projected every Fantasy-relevant RB's stats and come up with stunning projections. 

One player Gibbs is especially high on in Week 3: Philadelphia Eagles running back Miles Sanders. Sanders was drafted as the RB12 on average, but Gibbs has him ranked as the RB4 for Week 3. And a massive shocker: Gibbs is fading Atlanta Falcons running back Todd Gurley. In fact, Gibbs says Gurley won't even crack the top 20 running backs this week!

Gibbs also is calling for a RB you aren't even thinking about to finish in the top 20 at his position! This player could be the difference between winning BIG or going home with nothing.

So who are the best players to target at the RB position in Week 3? And which RB that you aren't thinking about is set to put up a monster point total? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' weekly Fantasy Football Helper, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!

Hey there! I proposed changing the format of the positional helpers on Twitter, and all of the feedback seemed to prefer moving to a tiered breakdown. I think this will be more helpful than arbitrarily choosing a few players to highlight as "good" or "bad" plays each week. I'm open to continuing to adjust these helpers to find what works best for you as a reader, though, so feel free to reach out to me on Twitter if you have any suggestions. Thanks for reading, and good luck to everyone in Week 3!

Tier 1 -- Auto Starts
Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Derrick Henry, Miles Sanders

The only back you might not consider a must-start out of this group is Sanders, so let's spend some time examining his awesome Week 2 usage.

That is a super Fantasy-friendly role, and it could help Sanders put up one of the strongest Fantasy games of his career to-date in a Week 3 matchup against the Bengals.

Tier 2 -- "Pretty good. Prettaaay, prettaaay, pretty good."
Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, Kenyan Drake, Dalvin Cook

You're almost certainly starting these four if you have them. There's a path to downside for each guy, but the most likely outcome is a massive Fantasy day.

Taylor -- The rookie handled 28 touches in his first NFL start, and we could see the Colts ride Taylor again in Week 3. The Jets have been decent against the run, but the Colts are 11-point favorites. Jamison Crowder is doubtful, and the Jets offense has looked horrendous. It's unlikely that this game remains competitive, which could mean Jordan Wilkins mop up carries to run the clock out. Still, Taylor is likely to be part of Indy putting enough points on the board to force mop up duties, so there's really no likely path to downside for him here. His efficiency might be down while running against stacked boxes, but the volume and touchdown potential make up for it.

Chubb -- Similar to Taylor, Chubb's matchup doesn't stand out as a great one, but his team should lean run-heavy while playing with a big lead. I'm slightly less confident in Cleveland's offense than Indy's, but overall, the projection for these two is really similar.

Drake --  The back with the highest ceiling of this group is undoubtedly Kenyan Drake. We all saw what Aaron Jones did to Detroit's defense last week. The Cardinals have a 30-point implied team total against the Lions in the game with the second-highest over/under on the slate. It's well within the range of outcomes for Arizona's offense to score four or five touchdowns, and Drake should be one of their most involved players around the goal line.

Cook -- The Vikings offense is implied for just 22.5 points after their putrid Week 2 showing, which makes Cook a bit riskier than the other names in this tier. The good news is that Minnesota upped Cook's snap rate from 58 percent in Week 1 to 80 percent last week. He's too good to not start, but Cook is going to be a bit of a disappointment for Fantasy if Minnesota's offensive struggles persist.

Tier 3 -- The upside is there, but don't ignore the red flags!
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler, Chris Carson, James Conner

CEH -- The Chiefs fed their rookie as they cruised to a Week 1 win, but we saw his role diminished in their first competitive game of the season. CEH played just 62 percent of the snaps in Week 2 and carried the rock just 10 times. The eight targets are certainly an encouraging sign, and Edwards-Helaire shouldn't struggle to put Fantasy points on the board in the game with the third-highest implied team total on the slate. Just don't assume he's an auto start because of his Week 1 showing. Kansas City's offense looked out of sync all day in Week 2 and Baltimore presents a pretty tough spot for a bounce-back.

Jones -- With Davante Adams looking likely to miss Week 3 and the Packers listed as three-point underdogs, expect Jones' passing game involvement to spike.

Jones currently ranks second behind only Calvin Ridley in red zone targets, and we should expect him to be featured in the passing game after his Week 2 performance. Green Bay is going to be short on weapons in this game and should lean on their best offensive player. Do I trust Matt LaFluer to do that? Well, he played Aaron Jones 48 percent of the snaps last week, even though he seemed to score a touchdown every other time he got the ball, so no.

Jacobs -- Well, I thought Week 2 would give us our first glimpse at what Jacobs' role would look like if the Raiders found themselves in a negative game script, but they surprisingly beat the Saints soundly. His snap rate did drop from 78 percent in Week 1 to 66 percent as we saw Jalen Richard get more involved last week, and I worry that it might drop even further with Las Vegas listed as six-point underdogs against the Patriots in Week 3.

Here are Jacobs' splits in wins and losses in 2019:

Wins -- 63% snap rate, 24.2 touches, 20.7 Fantasy points
Losses -- 50% snap rate, 16.7 touches, 9.8 Fantasy points

I expect him to find success on the ground in this matchup, but it's well within the range of outcomes for Jacobs to be game-scripted out of this one too. That's really the only reason Jacobs isn't a Tier 2 back for me this week. 

Ekeler -- The snap rate dropped from 68 percent in Week 1 to 57 percent as the Chargers tried to grind the clock out with Joshua Kelley (snap rate up from 24 percent to 52 percent) while playing with an unexpected lead against the Chiefs. It's possible that we see that type of split again in Week 3. Even with just 60-65 percent of the snaps available to him, Ekeler should still have no problem finding 20 touches (he has exactly 20 in each of the first two games) in L.A.'s run-first offense. And in a matchup against a Panthers defense that has given up over 200 rushing yards and six touchdowns to opposing running backs already this season, Ekeler's 20 touches could be enough to place him as the RB1 in Fantasy in Week 3. I'd start Ekeler with confidence, but the floor is there if he is again splitting touches and happens to not find the end zone in this one.

Carson -- It was good to see the snap rate rise from 45 percent to 63 percent from Week 1 to Week 2, but Carson still just isn't seeing the type of volume we grew accustomed to last year. The touchdown upside is through the roof while playing in the game with the highest over/under on the slate, so you are likely starting Carson if you have him. It's just worth noting that his usage is down and the perception of his Fantasy value would be much different if not for the outlier three receiving touchdowns through two weeks.

Conner -- After a bizarre Week 1, we saw Conner resume the workhorse back role that was advertised this offseason. He played 77 percent of the snaps and handled 78 percent of the RB touches. The Steelers lined Conner up out wide four times and in the slot once, and his 26 routes run ranked 11th at the RB position in Week 2. He saw just two targets on those 26 routes, but we saw Conner targeted four times on nine routes in Pittsburgh's opener. I'd expect him to be slightly more involved through the air in Week 3.

With the Steelers implied for 25 points and listed as four point favorites in a positive matchup, this sets up as a spot that Conner should thrive in. The only real downside is Conner's built-in volatility. We're just one week removed from wondering if Conner had straight up lost his job. I'm starting him anywhere I have him, but trusting Conner in Fantasy is always a scary proposition.

Tier 4 -- RB2s with usage, matchup, or game flow concerns
David Montgomery, James Robinson, Joe Mixon, Kareem Hunt, Antonio Gibson, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Mark Ingram, Joshua Kelley

Game flow concerns:

Mixon -- The Bengals are 4.5 point underdogs, and we could see them abandon the run if they get down early in this spot.

Gordon -- This game has the second lowest over/under on the slate, and the Broncos are six-point underdogs. No thanks.

Usage concerns:

Montgomery -- We haven't seen him handle a snap rate above 60 percent or more than 19 touches in a game while working his way back from injury. This could very well be the spot where that changes. He's by far the closest to Tier 3.

Kelley -- Like Montgomery, we just haven't seen Kelley in a role that would justify a Tier 3 placement yet. He could absolutely see 50 percent of the snaps and 20-plus carries against Carolina's weak rush defense, but there are variables that could throw that assumption off and ruin Kelley's day. What if Justin Herbert struggles in his second pro game and the game flow isn't what we expected? What if the game flow does favor Kelley, but L.A.'s two or three touchdowns simply go to other players and he's left with an empty 22-85 rushing line? Jacksonville's Thursday night debacle should be a clear reminder that trusting assumptions about game flow is a dangerous game in the NFL. This is a good spot, but there are certainly paths to downside.

And we have Mixon again -- The snap rate was down from 59 percent in Week 1 to 50 percent in Week 2.

Hunt -- With just a 34 percent snap rate in Cleveland's first semi-competitive game, you're betting on a touchdown if using him as an RB2.

Gibson -- Jumping from a 26 percent snap share to a 65 percent rate in Week 2 is definitely worth getting excited over, but we still haven't seen Gibson handle 15 touches or see more than two targets in a game. I'm still bullish on his long-term outlook and wouldn't be surprised if he takes another step forward in Week 3, but you are taking a leap of faith if starting him.

Gurley -- The snap rate seems to be capped at around 65 percent, and the targets are nonexistent. Matt Ryan did not target Gurley in Week 2 after he caught just two of five targets for one yard in Week 1. Gurley ranked last among qualified RB in drop rate, yards per route run, and PFF receiving grade in 2019.

Ingram -- Snap rates of 36 and 42 percent in the first two games don't inspire much confidence. That could definitely have been a product of blowouts, but we only saw Ingram play over 60 percent of the snaps in one game last season. With J.K. Dobbins now in the picture and Ingram looking like the dustiest member of his three-man backfield, I'm not ready to trust the assumption that he'll suddenly see a spike in playing time because it's a more meaningful game.

Matchup concerns:

Andddd Mixon with the trifecta -- The Eagles are one of the most well-known pass funnel defenses in the NFL.

Johnson -- DJ's snaps and routes run are near the top of the NFL, but the matchups have been brutal. I want no part of him against Pittsburgh.

Gordon x2 -- The Bucs held Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey to 70 rushing yards on 30 carries. Double no thanks.

Tier 5 -- I'd prefer not to start... But there is a path to upside if things break their way
Leonard Fournette, Jerick McKinnon, Mike Davis, Myles Gaskin, Malcolm Brown, Tarik Cohen, Nyheim Hines, Jeff Wilson, Ronald Jones

The two players who really stand out from this tier are Fournette and McKinnon. You can trust Mike Davis against the Chargers if you want, but I'm taking a wait and see approach with that backfield. However, Fournette and McKinnon both have a clear path to Tier 3 or 4 upside if their usage is above what is responsible to project. Their range of outcomes are quite wide, and I'm fine with starting either if you need a shot at upside to make up for one of the Jacksonville players letting you down on Thursday.

Tier 6 -- Break glass in case of emergency
D'Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, Darrell Henderson, Sony Michel, Dion Lewis, James White, Frank Gore, Kerryon Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Chase Edmonds

If absolutely desperate, these guys each have a slim path to a useful Fantasy outcome in Week 3.

Tier 7 -- "We don't like to say 'no' here, so I'll just say 'nah, bro."
Latavius Murray, Jordan Howard, Alexander Mattison, Carlos Hyde, Boston Scott, Wayne Gallman, Benny Snell, Jamaal Williams, Chris Thompson, Matt Breida, Tony Pollard, Gio Bernard, Devonta Freeman

There are paths to stumbling into the end zone or a handful of dumpoff catches for these players, but the most likely outcome leaves each of these players irrelevant in Week 3.

Early look at the RB position for DFS purposes in Week 3:

• Miles Sanders is going to be the mega-chalk on DraftKings, as he should be at this ridiculous price tag.
  
• Jonathan Taylor also figures to be popular after his dominant usage last week. The Colts are heavy favorites and FanDuel was slow to price him up into the top-five RB territory.
• Kenyan Drake is underpriced on both sites, but especially on FanDuel ($6,500).
• With Sanders and Taylor standing out as clearly the most popular plays at the position, we have another week where it's pretty easy to find tournament pivots. I don't feel as strongly about any RB tournament plays as I did about Aaron Jones last week, but I'll dig into it more on Saturday.

Week 3 RB Rankings:

1. Alvin Kamara
2. Ezekiel Elliott
3. Derrick Henry
4. Miles Sanders
5. Jonathan Taylor
6. Kenyan Drake
7. Nick Chubb
8. Aaron Jones
9. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
10. Dalvin Cook
11. Josh Jacobs
12. Austin Ekeler
13. Chris Carson
14. James Conner
15. David Montgomery
16. James Robinson
17. Joe Mixon
18. Devin Singletary
19. Antonio Gibson
20. Kareem Hunt
21. Todd Gurley
22. David Johnson
23. Melvin Gordon
24. Mark Ingram
25. Joshua Kelley
26. Leonard Fournette
27. Jerick McKinnon
28. Mike Davis
29. Myles Gaskin
30. Malcolm Brown
31. Darrell Henderson
32. J.K. Dobbins
33. Tarik Cohen
34. Nyheim Hines
35. Jeff Wilson
36. Ronald Jones
37. D'Andre Swift
38. Rex Burkhead
39. Sony Michel
40. Dion Lewis
41. Frank Gore
42. Adrian Peterson
43. Chase Edmonds
44. Latavius Murray
45. Kerryon Johnson
46. Alexander Mattison
47. Jordan Howard
48. Carlos Hyde
49. Boston Scott
50. Chris Thompson
51. Jamaal Williams
52. Wayne Gallman
53. Tony Pollard
54. Gio Bernard
55. Benny Snell
56. Darrel Williams
57. Matt Breida
58. J.D. McKissic
59. Gus Edwards
60. Jordan Wilkins
61. Brian Hill
62. Jalen Richard
63. Royce Freeman
64. LeSean McCoy
65. Darwin Thompson
66. Peyton Barber
67. Jaylen Samuels
68. Ito Smith
69. Kyle Juszcyzk
70. Devontae Booker
71. Lamical Perine
72. Travis Homer
73. Anthony McFarland
74. Devonta Freeman
75. J.J. Taylor

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