Week 14 College Football odds, predictions: Parlay picks, best bets for SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, Pac-12 for the weekend of December 3rd, 2022

Didn't the college football regular season seem to go by all too quickly? It feels like only a couple weeks ago that I wrote my first column of the season. In the meantime, I went to eight games, all for my alma mater Arizona Wildcats and fortunately they exceeded my expectations this season. A 5-7 record with a win over their rivals, ASU, for the first time since 2016 wasn't too bad considering the bar was set extremely low coming off of one win since October 2019.

What wasn't great was my preseason conference futures bets. Let's see where I had my few hits and many misses in the run-up to the 2022 season:

SEC: I was simply way off. I loved Texas A&M this season but to say they floundered at 5-7 was an understatement. I thought Alabama was a virtual lock to win the conference, and here they are not even in the SEC Championship Game. I also thought the Georgia conference title odds were too short at +130. In hindsight, that number was a gift.

Big 10: I have a sliver of a chance this weekend to salvage something if preseason +2500 Purdue shocks Michigan in the championship game. To be honest, it's flat out lucky the Boilermakers even qualified to play the Wolverines in Indianapolis due to a massive Iowa choke job last week and Illinois doing the same in the weeks beforehand. I recommended to fade Michigan and play Ohio State to win the conference. Needless to say, last week's result in Columbus is the most shocking, in the manner it happened, of any in the sport this season. Picking Ohio State receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba to win the Heisman also has been borderline disastrous. Due to injuries suffered in Week 1 against Notre Dame, he's been held to just five catches for 43 yards on the season and has only played in three games. 

ACC: I was all over NC State (+750) this season and still lament the injury to quarterback Devin Leary, who was my Heisman dark horse pick. The Wolfpack were 5-1 when Leary started but the loss to Clemson in early-October crushed my hopes. I think they did pretty well to end up 8-4 despite lackluster quarterback play for half the season. I recommended fading Miami at +500, which looks to be among my best picks from the column. They might have been honestly the worst five-win team in college football history.

Big 12: Oklahoma State (+450) was 5-0 and led TCU by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. And then they absolutely collapsed. Despite beating Texas the week after, the Cowboys finished the season 1-4 and are a team I probably would recommend fading in a bowl game. I was correct in fading the two preseason conference favorites, Oklahoma and Texas though. The Sooners have truly been a train wreck in Brent Venables' first season.

Pac-12: I liked Oregon at +300 to win the conference, which seemed like a great bet until Washington shockingly upset them on November 12th. I recommended fading Arizona State, which was as easy as can be (3-9 final record), but the call to fade USC... not my best. 

There's definitely major improvement needed next season after a disappointing set of preseason results.

On a happier note, it's on to the picks. I had my best week of the season, an 11-4 Week 13, putting me only one game under .500 at 94-95-3 with one more week to go before bowl season. I've hit seven conference parlays this season and turned a significant profit in the SEC, which was awesome to see. This week I'll pick the spread and total for each of the conference championship games in an effort to get my record above .500. 

Once again, the purpose of this column has been to find the best parlay bets each week by conference. I've kept each wager between two and four picks, but the combined parlay of my favorite picks at the bottom of the column each week unfortunately has been an unsuccessful lottery ticket of sorts. Just need to hit the one this week for a guaranteed profit!

All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.

Make sure to check out Wildcat Country, my Arizona Wildcats podcast with co-host Shane Dale! New episodes out weekly.

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SEC parlay picks

LSU +17.5 vs. Georgia
Over 51
Parlay Odds: +264 (1.5 units)

The one thing I do know about this game is LSU is playing with nothing to lose, and honestly Georgia has nothing to win. I think the Tigers play loose and put a minor scare into the Bulldogs with a solid offensive performance for at least a half. Over the last six SEC Championship Games, an average of 63 points have been scored. I think that total is definitely in play once again.
Prediction: Georgia 35, LSU 24

Game Record: 3-0 last week, 19-18-1 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 4 of 13 overall (+12.91 units)

BIG TEN parlay picks

Purdue +17 vs. Michigan
Under 52
Parlay Odds: +264 (1 unit)

Other than a dud against Iowa the other week in which they lost 24-3, Purdue just doesn't get blown out. Their three other losses this year have been by 4, 3, and 11 points. I don't think they're a threat to win, but Michigan is in the CFP regardless so there's no reason for the Wolverines to run it up. This game tends to be on the lower-scoring side, averaging just under 50 points per game in the last five.
Prediction: Michigan 31, Purdue 16 

Game Record: 2-1 last week, 19-21 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 13 overall (-14.5 units)

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ACC parlay picks

Clemson -7.5 vs. North Carolina
Under 63.5
Parlay Odds: +264 (1 unit)

Two things I know from watching these teams this season: Clemson doesn't generally blow out halfway decent teams, and UNC doesn't play a ton of defense against halfway decent teams. But this line is somewhat fishy to me because of the hook. The sportsbooks are screaming for you to bet UNC, so I won't take the bait. I don't know what the heck Clemson QB D.J. Uiagalelei was doing last week in a downright dreadful 8 of 29 performance with his team's season on the line against South Carolina. Maybe backup Cade Klubnik ends up getting the majority of the work this week, and if so, look for the Tigers to rely on their rushing attack. Something tells me that UNC's offense won't correct itself after two down weeks against a Clemson defense only allowing 20.9 PPG this season.
Prediction: Clemson 34, North Carolina 23

Game Record: 3-0 last week, 18-19 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 2 of 13 overall (-2.08 units)

BIG 12 parlay picks

Kansas State ML (+115) vs. TCU
Under 62
Parlay Odds: +310 (1 unit)

I've picked against TCU every week for almost a month now, so why stop now? Kansas State was up 28-10 on the Horned Frogs before then-backup QB (now starter) Will Howard got hurt. In only five games, Howard has thrown for 13 touchdowns to only two interceptions and Kansas State is averaging more than 40 PPG in the games he's played in this season. Sonny Dykes' team has been great, but they just seem due to lose before the CFP. Unless they get absolutely blown out, which I don't think they will, I see the Horned Frogs as a near-lock to face either Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl or Georgia in the Peach Bowl. Wildcats star running back Deuce Vaughn rushes for his eighth 100+ yard game of the season and multiple scores in what very well could be the most fun game of the weekend.
Prediction: Kansas State 34, TCU 28

Game Record: 2-1 last week, 20-17-1 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 13 overall (-14 units)

PAC-12 parlay picks

Utah ML (+135) vs. USC
Under 69
Parlay Odds: +349 (1 unit)

I feel like I'm either going to crush it this week or be crushed -- nothing in between. I love the Utes in this spot. Last year, they dominated Oregon in the regular season and beat them again almost as badly two weeks later in Las Vegas. This year, USC was punishing the Utes for three quarters but Utah's furious comeback and subsequent successful two-point conversion cost the Trojans a perfect season. I know that Lincoln Riley was a perfect 4-0 in Big 12 Championship games, but then again, has he ever gone up against a coach as great as Kyle Whittingham in one of those matchups? (By the way, Whittingham is easily the most under-appreciated coach in the country). Utah can't get into a track meet again or they'll lose, so expect them to try and run the ball down the Trojans' throats and keep eventual Heisman winner Caleb Williams to less than 25 minutes of possession time.
Prediction: Utah 31, USC 27

Game Record: 1-2 last week, 18-20-1 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 1 of 13 overall (-8.54 units)

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Week 14 College Football parlay picks

LSU-Georgia Over 51
Purdue-Michigan Under 52
Clemson -7.5 vs. North Carolina
Kansas State ML (+115) vs. TCU
Utah ML (+135) vs. USC
Parlay Odds: +3415 (0.5 units)

Weekly Parlay Record: 0 of 13 overall (-6.5 units)

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