Week 12 College Football odds, predictions: Parlay picks, best bets for SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, Pac-12 for the weekend of November 19th, 2022

As I'm sitting here writing this column, it's truly hard to believe that we're nearing the end of the college football regular season. With some rivalry games even taking place this weekend, it feels like the season went by too quickly. But the College Football Playoff path is still far from clear. At least nine teams still have a chance to play in the Peach and Fiesta Bowls, including three (TCU, North Carolina, and LSU) that no one would've predicted even two months ago. Here are my top five storylines related to the CFP for Week 12 of the college football season:

1. Pac-12 carnage renders this weekend's awesome slate a lot less meaningful.
I was so thrilled that my Arizona Wildcats knocked No. 12 UCLA out of the CFP race with a stunning 34-28 win late Saturday night at the Rose Bowl. But as shocking as that upset was to me and others, I was actually more surprised that Washington knocked off No. 8 Oregon in Eugene earlier in the evening. I believed in the Ducks but never the Bruins. UCLA-USC and Oregon-Utah were supposed to be the default Pac-12 semifinals this Saturday with three one-loss conference teams and one undefeated team in conference. Now the matchups are one-loss USC vs. two-loss UCLA and one-loss Oregon vs. one-loss Utah. There's a lot less shine to those being that UCLA and Oregon are completely out of the national race and USC is the conference's only hope. For a conference already embattled with the SoCal schools leaving after next season, Week 11's results were about as disappointing as could've been reasonably expected.

2. Is this the week TCU loses?
We know it has to happen at some point. Or so most of us think. Texas flopped offensively against the Horned Frogs, who are sitting pretty at 10-0. But don't forget, even though they got smoked by Kansas State last Saturday, Baylor was formerly ranked in the top-10 earlier this season. A November upset special is certainly in the cards this weekend in Waco. And if not, I'll probably be picking the Wildcats against TCU in a rematch of their October thriller come two weeks from now. If TCU wins their final three games, they're at least the No. 3 seed likely against the Big Ten winner in the Fiesta Bowl.

3. Clemson and North Carolina are still alive!?
Both teams have one loss this season, both to Notre Dame. With a likely matchup of one-loss teams in the conference championship game, will the CFP committee be inclined to take a one-loss conference champion over one-loss non-conference champions such as Tennessee, the Ohio State-Michigan loser, or even TCU? If I was a voter, I would've eliminated both teams by now but I think there's a real possibility one reaches the final four, especially if the Horned Frogs lose at some point.

4. Two loss LSU or one-loss Tennessee?
October 8th: Tennessee 40, LSU 13. In Baton Rouge. Yet if the Tigers win their last two regular season games AND beat Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, the committee might feel inclined to take the Tigers instead. Even based on the eye test and ignoring the head-to-head matchup, the Volunteers are the better team. Considering the result on 10/8, it would be a massive middle finger by CFP voters to leave out Tennessee in favor of LSU under any circumstances.

5. The Ohio State-Michigan loser next week still has a shot.
Especially if it's Michigan and the result is razor thin. Though their schedule has been nothing short of unbelievably weak, the Wolverines pass the eye test and certainly look like a top-four team, as do the Buckeyes. It might be harder to justify Ohio State losing at home to their rival but the Buckeyes are a worthy No. 2 in the country for now. For both teams to get in, likely TCU, LSU, and USC would have to lose and the CFP committee would have to debate between the ACC Champion, Tennessee, and the Wolverines for two spots. 

Since I love to talk about the eye test, the best matchups to me would be:
Peach Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Michigan
Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Tennessee
But odds are these matchups are both unlikely barring the results mentioned above.

On to the picks. After a 6-8-1 week, I now sit at 77-84-2 on the season. With three weeks left of picks, including a limited conference championship-filled Week 14, it's time to make some late-season money for all of us. I'll pick both of the Pac-12 games mentioned above, TCU-Baylor, and other key games in annually one of the least exciting CFB weeks on the calendar.

Once again, the purpose of this column each week is to find the best parlay bets by conference. I'll try to keep each wager between two and four picks, but the combined parlay of my favorite picks at the bottom of the column each week will be our lottery ticket. If we hit even just one of those all season, it should get us a guaranteed season profit.

All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.

Make sure to check out Wildcat Country, my Arizona Wildcats podcast with co-host Shane Dale! New episodes out weekly.

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SEC parlay picks

UMass-Texas A&M Under 47
Western Kentucky +5.5 at Auburn
Tennessee-South Carolina Under 66
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

Texas A&M's offense has been a true embarrassment. Their season high in points is 31, in Week 1 against FCS Sam Houston. While they'll end their pathetic six game losing streak against the Minutemen, I have a hard time seeing this total go much above the low 40s. An A&M shutout of UMass also is well in play here. Western Kentucky is 8-2 against the spread this season, including a 5-0 showing on the road. Nice win for former Tiger running back Cadillac Williams last week as interim coach over A&M but the Hilltoppers are playing really good football right now, including 59-7 and 45-10 wins in their last two games. I'll take the points but think there's a real possibility of WKU winning outright. While Tennessee needs style points to cement their CFP candidacy, their games are 0-3 to the under this season on the road. South Carolina is going to try and play ball control and limit a potential shootout. Take the under confidently.

Game Record: 1-1-1 last week, 15-16-1 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 3 of 11 overall (+7.95 units)

BIG TEN parlay picks

Ohio State-Maryland Over 65
Minnesota -3 vs. Iowa
Northwestern +19.5 at Purdue
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

I should've won last week's conference parlay with a 2-0-1 record but Rutgers converted a miracle touchdown on 4th and 28 in the final minute to lose me Under 41. Ouch. New week, same logic. Ohio State is crushing everyone with the exception of the worst weather game we've seen in CFB this year, the other week against Northwestern. Maryland can score in bunches, especially in garbage time (minus last week against Penn State). This one has 48-24 written all over it. Both Minnesota and Iowa have won three straight and come into this game with plenty of momentum. The over/under of 32.5 might be the lowest in CFB since the 1980s if it closes this low. But I'm going with the Golden Gophers to reclaim the Floyd of Rosedale trophy and beat their rivals for the first time since 2014. Minnesota running back Mohamed Ibrahim is fifth in the nation with 1,261 yards rushing and first nationally with 18 rushing touchdowns. Iowa has the eighth-best rush defense in the country, but I'll still predict the Minnesota RB to rush for 90+ yards and a score in what should be a 17-10 sort of game. Purdue hasn't beaten a team by more than 20 since a 56-0 win over FCS Indiana State in their second game. Northwestern is really bad, having lost nine in a row since beating Nebraska in Ireland, but something tells me they'll hang with the Boilermakers well into the second half. I'll reluctantly take the points for the Wildcats on the road.

Game Record: 2-1 last week, 15-19 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 11 overall (-12.5 units)

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ACC parlay picks

Duke-Pittsburgh Over 52.5
Miami-Clemson Over 48
Georgia Tech +21 at North Carolina
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

This is the one conference I can't seem to grasp. I'm 0-6 here in the last two weeks. I'm due though, right? The last three Duke-Pittsburgh scores have been 54-45, 33-30, and 54-29. While I understand that has nothing to do with this year, if you read this column enough, you know I love historical trends. Rolling with this one in Week 12. If Clemson wants to make the College Football Playoff, they need to win out and do so in style. In this case, they need to either darn near shut out the Hurricanes (possible) or score with relative ease. I see a 38-16 sort of game here and will choose the over instead of laying the 19 points just in case. Speaking of teams that need to win by a large margin, North Carolina is one. I just don't believe their defense is capable of stopping teams, even bad ones like Georgia Tech, regularly. The Tar Heels have only won by double-digits three times this season (Florida A&M, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh). I'm not saying they won't do so here but a backdoor cover for the Yellow Jackets, as almost was the case in Tallahassee the other week, seems quite possible.

Game Record: 0-3 last week, 12-19 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 11 overall (-14 units)

BIG 12 parlay picks

TCU-Baylor Over 57.5
Iowa State -3.5 vs. Texas Tech
Oklahoma State +7.5 at Oklahoma
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

I really wanted to pick Baylor's moneyline for reasons stated above, but the Over is the best play here. Both teams' offenses cooled off last weekend but I feel like this game is played in the 30s. Hunch prediction: Bears win 35-31. Texas Tech is 0-4 on the road, albeit all four of those games were against top-25 ranked teams at the time. Iowa State certainly isn't that, and needs to win out this week and against TCU on the road next week (good luck) to be bowl-eligible. I expect the Cyclones to play well in their home finale and win by at least a touchdown. The Red Raiders could very well get to bowl eligibility at home next week against Oklahoma. Speaking of the Sooners, one of the coolest rivalries in college football that may be going away is "Bedlam," Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State. It would be such a shame if these two schools can't work out a yearly deal with the Sooners moving to the SEC in 2025. I believe Oklahoma State is the better team and assuming that they have quarterback Spencer Sanders, who rallied them against Iowa State last week in relief, I'm once again picking OK State, even though the other week I said never again. It wouldn't shock me if they won the game outright.

Game Record: 2-1 last week, 18-13-1 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 11 overall (-11.5 units)

PAC-12 parlay picks

Colorado-Washington Over 64
USC -2.5 at UCLA
Oregon -3 vs. Utah
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

I'll try to keep this Colorado-Washington analysis simple. The Buffaloes' games have gone Over in each of their five road appearances this season. In their last four games, Colorado has given up 42, 42, 49, and 55. They're getting worse. With Washington having the nation's leading passer in Michael Penix Jr. and a Pac-12 Championship Game appearance still in play, expect the Huskies to score early and often. I'd be surprised if they scored less than 48. I've been trying to fade UCLA constantly this season after their wretched performance against South Alabama in September. To their credit, Chip Kelly's squad has been considerably better than I've given them credit for throughout the year. But last week, my Wildcats put an end to the Bruins' storybook season and ruined their CFP chances. I still think USC will lose again, probably in the Pac-12 Championship Game against Oregon (if they match up), but for now I'll fade the Bruins yet again in what should be a barn burner between these two rivals. As I see it though, USC is simply the better team top-to-bottom. 

I can't really explain how Oregon lost that game to Washington, but Dan Lanning's decision to go for a fourth-and-1 on his own 30-yard line with two minutes left in a tie game was curious at best. Oregon had been so dominant since the Georgia loss on Sept. 3 that I just didn't see them slipping up until the postseason. Last year these teams met in the regular season in Salt Lake City, with the Utes winning 38-7. Shockingly, two weeks later, Utah nearly repeated the same score in a 38-10 romp. While a rematch isn't likely again in two weeks, I think revenge is in order; the home team wins by at least a touchdown and cements a likely trip to Vegas in two weeks, probably against the USC-UCLA winner.

Game Record: 1-2 last week, 16-17 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 1 of 11 overall (-6.54 units)

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Week 12 College Football parlay picks

Tennessee-South Carolina Under 66
Ohio State-Maryland Over 65
Minnesota -3 vs. Iowa
Duke-Pittsburgh Over 52.5
TCU-Baylor Over 57.5
USC -2.5 at UCLA
Oregon -3 vs. Utah

Parlay Odds: +9142 (0.5 units)
Weekly Parlay Record: 0 of 11 overall (-5.5 units)

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