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Week 11 NFL picks from a top-ranked computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model, which has performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com the past two seasons, picks every NFL game.
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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and has crushed human experts on a consistent basis. 

In a straight-up, pick'em format, our proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and 2017, performing better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on all A-rated picks last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 11 on a blistering 10-0 run. For the season, it is now 24-9 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 72-43. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 98-48 this season, again ranking in the top 15 on NFLPickWatch.com. Anybody who has been following it is way, way up. 

Now it has simulated every snap of Week 11 of the 2018 NFL season and the results are in. 

We can tell you the model projects the Bears (-2.5) to cover at home against the Vikings with room to spare. According to the model, Chicago's second-ranked rushing defense holds Minnesota's backs to well under 100 yards on the day as the Bears cover in over 55 percent of simulations. That dominant defensive performance also helps the Under (44.5) hit 55 percent of the time. 

The model also has made the call on the huge Chiefs vs. Rams showdown on Monday Night Football, and is projecting that a Super Bowl contender will get a huge scare on the road. 

So which teams should you back in Week 11 of the NFL season? And which Super Bowl contender gets a huge scare? Join SportsLine here to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has outperformed 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com the past two seasons!

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SportsLine Staff