Texans, 49ers jump in SportsLine NFL futures simulations following Week 6

What did the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers have in common last week? Both were around field-goal underdogs on the NFL odds visiting teams that reached last season's conference championship games and both pulled off upsets.

Houston was +3.5 at Kansas City, but Deshaun Watson outplayed reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes in a 31-24 victory. Watson threw for a score and rushed for two more to put his name squarely in the MVP race.

According to the SportsLine Projection Model, Houston's chances of winning the AFC title for the first time in franchise history jumped from 2.3 percent to about 11 percent. The Texans' chance to win the Super Bowl went from under 1 percent to 5 percent.

They are now projected to win 9.8 games and repeat as AFC South champions. On the flip side, by losing a second straight home game, Kansas City's chance to win the Super Bowl dropped from 12.6 percent to just over 7 percent.

San Francisco was +3 at the defending NFC champion-Los Angeles Rams and rolled to a 20-7 victory by shutting down a Rams offense missing Pro Bowl running back Todd Gurley. The Niners are the NFC's only unbeaten team and their defense has yet to allow more than 20 points. It's the fourth 5-0 start in Niners history and first since 1990.

The 49ers have taken over the top spot in the NFC based on a projected record of 12-4. Two weeks ago, the Niners had just a 0.86 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl, but they are now at an NFC-best 28.2 percent for the conference title and 13.5 percent for the Super Bowl.

The Rams, on a three-game skid, dropped to 0.6 percent to win the Super Bowl, although that simulation was run before Tuesday's big trade in which Los Angeles acquired Pro Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey from the Jacksonville Jaguars. L.A. has just a 2.9 percent chance to win the NFC West again as it is already down a head-to-head tiebreaker vs. the 49ers and 5-1 Seattle Seahawks. 

Check out our full simulations here.