If not for Malcolm Butler's goal-line interception last year, the underdog would be on an 11-3 against-the-spread run in the Super Bowl.
New England's 28-24 win in Super Bowl 49 -- the Patriots closed at -1 at most books -- temporarily stalled the underdog train.
|Recent Super Bowl betting history|
|49||Patriots 28, Seahawks 24||NE -1||Over 47|
|48||Seahawks 43, Broncos 8||SEA +1.5||Over 47|
|47||Ravens 34, 49ers 31||BAL +4.5||Over 47.5|
|46||Giants 21, Patriots 17||NYG +3||Under 53|
|45||Packers 31, Steelers 25||GB -3||Over 44.5|
|44||Saints 31, Colts 17||NO +4.5||Under 56.5|
|43||Steelers 27, Cardinals 23||ARI +6.5||Over 46.5|
|42||Giants 17, Patriots 14||NYG +12.5||Under 54.5|
|41||Colts 29, Bears 17||IND -6.5||Under 47|
|40||Steelers 21, Seahawks 10||PIT -4||Under 47|
|39||Patriots 24, Eagles 21||PHI +7||Under 47|
|38||Patriots 32, Panthers 29||CAR +7||Over 38|
|37||Bucs 48, Raiders 21||TB +3.5||Over 44|
|36||Patriots 20, Rams 17||NE +14||Under 53|
|35||Ravens 34, Giants 7||BAL -3||Over 33.5|
|34||Rams 23, Titans 16||STL -7||Under 48|
|33||Broncos 34, Falcons 19||DEN -7.5||Over 51.5|
|32||Broncos 31, Packers 24||DEN +11.5||Over 49|
|31||Packers 35, Patriots 21||GB -14||Over 49|
|30||Cowboys 27, Steelers 17||PIT +13.5||Under 51|
Underdogs had won the three previous games outright, and five of the previous seven, turning big profits for moneyline players.
Overall, however, favorites are 25-22-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl, according to Covers.com. The Over is 25-23 (there was no widely reported total for Super Bowl 1).
Here's the biggest trend for the biggest game: Pick the winner and you'll cover. It's held true 88 percent of the time.
Only six times in 49 Super Bowls has a winning favorite failed to cover. It's either been the favorite winning and covering or the underdog winning outright.
So if you just pick the winner without thinking about the spread, you would have been correct 43 times in 49 tries.
This could be due to the snowball effect. Teams that fall behind significantly on the biggest stage imaginable resort to drastic measures, and those backfire more often than not.
All that said, here are notable trends for each team, via Covers.
Carolina Panthers (13-5 ATS, 12-5-1 O/U)
The Panthers are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.
The Panthers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 playoff games.
The Over is 4-0 in Carolina's last four playoff games and 20-7-1 in Carolina's last 28 games vs. winning teams.
Denver Broncos (9-8-1 ATS, 6-11-1 O/U)
The Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.
The Broncos are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight playoff games.
The Under is 5-1 in Denver's last six playoff games.