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Sunday Night Football - Chiefs vs. Bills lines, picks: Proven NFL model releases picks for Week 5 clash

SportsLine's projection model simulated the Week 5 game between Kansas City and Buffalo 10,000 times and revealed its results
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The Buffalo Bills will aim for their fourth consecutive victory when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season on Sunday Night Football. Buffalo (3-1) is coming off a 40-0 victory over Houston, while Kansas City (2-2) avoided a third straight loss with a 42-30 at Philadelphia last week. Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a three-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Bills odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 56.5.

Before making any Bills vs. Chiefs picks of your own, you NEED to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 5 of the 2021 season on an incredible 124-82 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is WAY UP.

The model knows Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL with 14 touchdown passes after hurling five against the Eagles in Week 4. The Chiefs rank second in the league in total offense (427.5 yards) behind the 26-year-old, who is fifth with 1,218 passing yards. Kansas City has scored at least 33 points in three of its four games and is tied for second in the NFL with an average of 33.5 per contest.

The model also knows Buffalo is averaging 33.5 points after producing 35 or more in each of its last three games, all victories. Two of those wins were shutouts, which isn't very surprising when you consider the Bills are first in the NFL in total defense (216.8 yards). Buffalo also is first against the pass (148.8 yards) and in points allowed per game (11) while permitting just one rushing touchdown thus far, which ties it for fewest in the league.

Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Bills. We can tell you it is leaning Under, and it also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any NFL picks.

Who wins Chiefs vs. Bills on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Bills vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 124-82 roll on NFL picks

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SportsLine Staff