Projection model simulates Virginia vs. Texas Tech 10,000 times

The 2019 NCAA Tournament will reach its conclusion on Monday as the No. 1 seed Virginia Cavaliers take on the No. 3 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders for the national championship. The 2019 Final Four has been in Minneapolis and Monday's national title contest will tip off at 9:20 p.m. ET.

It's Texas Tech's first chance to cut down the nets and it is also Virginia's first national title appearance despite it being the third Final Four appearance for the program. So one of these two programs will have their defining moment on Monday night.

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The Red Raiders have had the most dominant defense in terms of defensive efficiency rating of the last 18 years according to KenPom and they enter the national title game coming off smothering Michigan State in their national semifinal. The Spartans managed just 51 points and shot just 31.9 percent from the floor in that game.

It was perfectly representative of how good Texas Tech can be defensively. They ran the Spartans off the 3-point line, allowing them to hit just 29.2 percent of their attempts from distance which is right in line with their season opponents' 3-point shooting percentage of 29.3.

Jarrett Culver and Matt Mooney pressure the ball hard and close out shooters hard on the perimeter and then Tariq Owens sits down low to erase shots at the rim. He's averaged 2.5 blocks per game and has 13 blocks now in the five NCAA Tournament games.

However, Virginia is also a defensive juggernaut who gets timely shot-making. That should turn Monday's contest into a possession-by-possession grind.

The Cavaliers ranked second in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and allowed just 55.5 points per game. That was the best mark in the country and their pack-line defensive system is also designed to run opponents off the 3-point line with pressure and aggressive closeouts.

Virginia opponents shoot just 28.7 percent from beyond the arc, which is the fourth-best rate in the nation. De'Andre Hunter is 6-foot-7 on the wing with a considerable wingspan and he does an incredible job of locking down the best scorer on the opposing team and he'll be a game match for Culver on Monday.

Ty Jerome and Kyle Guy are both shot-makers who make the Virginia offense surprisingly efficient that is disguised by the fact that they play methodically. That pair combined for 36 points on Saturday in the win over Auburn, with Guy hitting the three critical free throws that put Virginia into the national title game.

It should be an exciting contest where every single shot is of consequence and it could be one of the best title games in recent memory.

Here's a look at the projected scores and stats for Virginia vs. Texas Tech. Simulations run every 15 minutes and all projections are updated on the game forecast page.

Monday, April 8

Virginia vs. Texas Tech, 9:20 P.M. ET

SportsLine Projection Model's score: Virginia 67, Texas Tech 64

Projected Statistics: Jarrett Culver has 20.3 points and 7.6 rebounds with 3.8 assists for Texas Tech and Davide Moretti scores 11.9 points. Kyle Guy has another big game with 14.2 points while De'Andre Hunter scores 13.9 points iwth 4.6 rebounds for Virginia.