The public absolutely took it to the sportsbooks in Week 6, with favorites dominating the early slate and barely any competitive football being played in the second halves of the 1 p.m. ET games. Books usually respond by inflating favorites in subsequent weeks and expecting the public to lay those inflated lines, but how can you know which lines are inflated and which might still offer value on the favorites?
That's where spread power ratings come in. Basically, we look at every team in the league's value against an average team to determine how many points they should be better or worse than zero. Maybe you make the Titans a dead average team after losing to the Jets and beating the Bills in recent weeks, putting their power rating at zero. When you consider the Bengals, who would you have favored on a neutral field in a game between Cincinnati and Tennessee? If you think the Bengals are the slightly better team, you might make the matchup Cincy -1, which puts the Bengals as a plus-1 power rating. Or if you have Tennessee as slightly better, maybe Cincinnati is a minus-1 power rating. I think one of those scenarios is true, and you can see which below.
I've analyzed every Week 6 performance and made adjustments to my own power ratings. Are the Bills still the sole team at No. 1 after losing on Monday night? How did I resolve a group of basement-level teams where it feels like you can make any of them favorites in any matchup?
Read on to see my rating for all 32 teams, plus where I think the lines present the most value early in the week. And there are two games where I think the line is off by more than a field goal.
Which lines are more than a point off their power rating projections for Week 7? And which teams are being undervalued by the market? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 7 power ratings from the expert who finished 2020 on an outstanding 80-59 run on NFL picks!