It was an uneven week again for us last week, but the pick we featured at the top of the article came through pretty easily, and we're going to trust in them again this week. Our other key win was the Giants, a team that was dominated in the box score but still found a way to score the upset win, as they do. That's the profile of a team that we'd be looking to fade because their record should have them overrated, but since they're three-point underdogs against a stumbling Jaguars team, it seems the market has sniffed out the fact that the Giants aren't as good as their record indicates. But did they overcorrect on that value?

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL ATS expert over the last five years, going 445-378-24 against the spread to put me up more than 25 units on those picks at SportsLine. I've also delivered a 56.8 percent hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last seven seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm again backing a team that's an underdog with a potential MVP candidate at quarterback: the Seattle Seahawks +5.5 at the Los Angeles Chargers.

Let's start with the Chargers, a team that feels like it's underperformed despite being tied for the AFC West lead at 4-2. They weren't able to beat a struggling Broncos team convincingly on Monday. They escaped with a two-point win against a mediocre Browns team thanks to a red-zone pick by Jacoby Brissett on the penultimate possession and then Cade York missing a 53-yard field goal on the final possession. A special-teams mistake let the Texans -- one of the worst teams in the league -- back in the game the previous week before a late Chargers touchdown iced the cover. Of course it's a good thing the Chargers are stacking wins, but they haven't looked impressive in doing it.

Then we have the Seahawks, a team getting fantastic play from quarterback Geno Smith that's now found a potential gem at running back in Kenneth Walker. The Seahawks' run game could feast against a Chargers defense that ranks 31st in yards per rush. The main problem with the Seahawks is their defense, but that unit is coming off a great game against Arizona and may be able to have at least a little success against a Chargers offense on a short week coming off a down performance. And even if they can't stop the Chargers offense, that team finds ways to let teams back into the game, and I have confidence in Smith securing a backdoor cover if needed.

Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below.

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