NFL Week 5 picks: Back Commanders, and more against the spread best bets from Las Vegas SuperContest expert
We had some nice calls last week, but one of our tough losers was backing the Browns to cover as 1.5-point favorites against the Falcons. I don't hate the play in retrospect; the Browns passed on any points on their first drive by going for it on fourth-and-goal from the 4-yard line, which feels too aggressive even for me when Jacoby Brissett is your QB. On their next drive, they fumbled the ball away, setting Atlanta up for a 31-yard TD drive. Despite those flubs, they still led 13-10 heading into the fourth quarter and probably would've won the game with a better margin before the final period. Did the Browns make my picks again this week? We'll reveal that below.
I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL ATS expert over the last five years, going 445-378-24 against the spread to put me up more than 25 units on those picks at SportsLine. I've also delivered a 56.8 percent hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last seven seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.
If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing a team that's looked terrible the last two weeks: the Washington Commanders +2.5 vs. the Tennessee Titans.
I know no one wants to back the Commanders after what we've seen the last two weeks, but those offensive implosions came against two of the better defenses in the league. They scored 28 points against what's turned out to be a solid Jaguars defense in Week 1 and 27 points one week later on the road against the Lions. I think that's closer to the offense we're getting in this game against a Titans defense that ranks 30th in yards per play, with the same ranking in pass yards per play.
The Washington defense is much better against the run than the pass, which fits this matchup, and I think the Commanders edge rush can win in the trenches against these Titans tackles. The Titans are also without talented rookie Treylon Burks, so I have even less faith the Tennessee pass game can keep up with Washington if they're having success through the air again. Then you look at the lookahead line, which was a pick 'em, and wonder how the market could consider these teams as 2.5 points different collectively than they were last week. The market seems to agree, with this line moving back toward zero since the contest lines locked, and I'm on board as I think this is a rough spot for Tennessee's elevated stock and a great one for Washington's depressed stock.
Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below.
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