Week 1 was not kind to our picks, as the Eagles lost an easy cover thanks to a late Lions rally and the Jaguars couldn't keep the Commanders out of the end zone with less than two minutes left despite Washington only needing a field goal to win. I balked on using the Browns in either the SuperContest or the Circa Million despite liking them about as much as the Jaguars, and I should've used the Dolphins in both contests rather than just Circa seeing as how I thought the line should be Dolphins -6, but the -3.5 scared me off. It's a long season, so there's still plenty of time to make up ground and hopefully catch some better breaks moving forward, but Week 1 feels like a missed opportunity.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL ATS expert over the last five years, going 445-378-24 against the spread to put me up more than 25 units on those picks at SportsLine. I've also delivered a 56.8 percent hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last seven seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number in the double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm fading a quarterback who should not be laying nearly a touchdown in the NFL game and backing his opponent instead: the New York Jets +6 at the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns can certainly beat bad teams by leaning on their defense and run game, and they had the opportunity to do that last week. But the defense collapsed in the fourth quarter, and it took a 58-yard field goal from rookie Cade York just to escape with a win. With that being the case, I'm surprised they've been installed as six-point favorites against anyone, and that line is even higher in some spots. Is the market really going to give us the chance to catch a full touchdown against Jacoby Brissett? He's played at least 60% of the snaps in 37 games in his career and won by more than six points just six times in those games, and four of those wins have come against the same team (Houston). How can we trust him as a big favorite?

The Jets offense certainly didn't look good in a blowout loss against the Ravens in Week 1, but their defense actually played pretty well. The Ravens picked up multiple first downs on just three of their 11 drives of consequence (throwing out two end-of-half drives), but all three happened to end in touchdowns. That's going to happen with a Jets defense capable of giving up big plays in the passing game, but who's going to get those big plays catching passes from Brissett? In all, the Jets allowed only 274 yards of offense to Baltimore in the game after holding just two opponents under 300 yards last year. I think this defensive unit can keep this game ugly and low-scoring, giving the Jets offense a chance to overcome having Joe Flacco at quarterback.

Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below.

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