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    NFL Week 13 power rankings: Buccaneers push past Chiefs, plus futures odds, sim projections for all 32 teams

    With Week 12 in the books, the SportsLine Projection Model has simulated the season 10,000 times and has some surprising futures projections.
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    The Kansas City Chiefs ascended to No. 1 in the SportsLine Power Rankings last week heading into a bye. While they rested, another team has passed them for the honors of best team in football. That's not to say the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are perfect; their defense is still struggling, particularly against the pass, and that's a tough Achilles heel to take into the playoffs against the best quarterbacks in the league. But nonetheless, a big win over an underrated Colts team plus losses by two other top NFC contenders (Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Rams) has boosted Tampa Bay from from No. 3 past two AFC teams into the top spot.

    The Chiefs, in fact, don't even sit at No. 2 after going 0-0 this week. The Buffalo Bills dominated the New Orleans Saints on Thanksgiving, continuing their trend of looking dominant one week and mediocre the next. The Bills failed in a prove-it challenge against the Indianapolis Colts two weeks ago -- a Colts team our new No. 1 beat on the road this past week, by the way -- and they have bigger ones on the schedule ahead: the New England Patriots on Monday night, followed by the Buccaneers the next week and the Patriots again two weeks after that. We'll know after Week 16 if the Bills are truly worthy of a spot at or near the top of the power rankings.

    Updated NFL futures odds from Caesars Sportsbook make the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the clear favorites to win the Super Bowl at +525, with the Chiefs holding strong in the second spot at +700, better odds than any other AFC team. The Green Bay Packers jump into the third spot at +750 following a win over the Rams, a big move after coming in at +1000 last week. Next are the Bills at +800 and the Arizona Cardinals at +900; while the latter is in the driver's seat for home-field advantage in the NFC, Arizona does lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to Green Bay if the two teams finish the season even. The Patriots and Baltimore Ravens are next up at +1100, with the Rams and Cowboys falling to +1200 and +1300, respectively. No other team is shorter than +2500 to win it all.

    Before you place any futures bets on who wins the Super Bowl and each conference or division, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

    The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,100 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 13 of the 2021 season on an incredible 131-94 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

    The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is WAY UP!

    Below, you can find the power ranking for all 32 teams based on the model's "neutral sim%," which is calculated based on the number of simulations they win playing healthy (in February) vs. every other team on a neutral field. You'll also find the simulation's projection for how often each team wins their division, conference and the Super Bowl, compared to the current available odds, along with notes from the model's creator, Stephen Oh.

    How high have the Patriots climbed after another impressive victory? And are the Cowboys even a top-10 team right now? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 13 power rankings from the proven NFL model which has delivered consistent positive value on its picks!

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    SportsLine Staff

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