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NFL Week 1 picks: Back the Chiefs, and more best bets against the spread from Las Vegas SuperContest expert

R.J. White shares his five picks for the Westgate SuperContest after hitting on more than 57 percent of his plays in the competition over the last six years.
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After a year off from the Westgate SuperContest due to the pandemic, I'm back in the running to take home the grand prize this year. But here's a twist for 2021: I'll also being sharing my weekly picks for the Circa Million, another of Las Vegas' big NFL picks contests where you also select your top five teams to cover week in and week out. And not all the of picks will be the same on both cards; that's because the lines won't necessarily match up for each contest, and I also may want to mix up the teams I'm backing on the lower portion of my best bets to diversify my chances.

But why should you care about this at all, you ask? Well, I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL expert over the last four years, going 354-292-22 against the spread in particular during that stretch. I've also delivered a 57.1 percent hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last six seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number in the double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. And while line movement can be a factor when settling on my top five picks for each contest, it's certainly not the only factor, as is evidenced by one of my plays: the Kansas City Chiefs -6 vs. the Cleveland Browns.

After the line posted at Kansas City -6 in both contests, it was bet down under six as of Friday afternoon. But if you heard me on the Early Edge NFL preview livestream (check it out every Tuesday from 5 p.m. to 6 p.m. ET), you'd know I thought the Chiefs were wildly underpriced to begin with. The number on the board means one of two things have to be in play: either the Chiefs are just a great team but not head and shoulders above the competition in the AFC, or the Browns have moved into that second tier of not-quite-as-elite teams with the Bills. I'm fading both of those at this point, especially after Cleveland mustered just 308 yards of offense against this very team in January and lost by five points despite playing Chad Henne in the second half.

Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below, including a pair of home 'dogs I think offer great value.

So which teams should you back in Week 1? And which home favorite wins with ease?... Join SportsLine right now to see who you should back in Week 1, all from the expert who keeps crushing the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament!

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R.J. WhiteSuper Stat Geek

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