Manning calling it quits should only improve Broncos in '16

SportsLine sees the future brighter in 2016 with Brock Osweiler under center for the Broncos. Our Larry Hartstein also got the Las Vegas perspective on Peyton Manning's retirement.
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His first three years in Denver, Peyton Manning helped bettors cash a ton of tickets.

"We'd get annihilated with Broncos-and-Over parlays -- seemed like it happened almost every game," Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager for MGM Resorts International, told SportsLine.

The Over went 31-16-1 (66 percent) in Denver's games from 2012-14, the Broncos 28-19-1 ATS (60 percent) in that span.

Manning vs. Osweiler
  Wins Neutral%* Super Bowl%
with Manning 10.1 61.7% 6.2%
with Osweiler** 10.7 65.3% 7.7%
Impact 0.6 3.6% 1.5%
* Neutral Win%: The winning percentage against the other 31 teams in the NFL on a neutral field.
** Assumes improvement with full training camp as starter

The public loves to parlay favorites and Overs; they also love the 13-to-5 payoff.

But Manning was a shell of himself last season.

So with Manning retiring, Vegas isn't adjusting Denver's odds. MGM opened Denver at 10/1 to repeat as Super Bowl champ and sees no reason to move.

"We figured Manning probably would be leaving, but he wasn't much of a factor in the last few games he played," Stoneback said. "Manning versus Brock Osweiler didn't really affect the number."

The Patriots, Panthers and Seahawks all have lower odds than the Super Bowl champs, who are tied at 10/1 with the Steelers, Bengals and Packers. Denver is 5/1 to win the AFC.

SportsLine sees the Broncos -- assuming they re-sign the impending free agent Osweiler -- improving offensively in 2016. The 25-year-old gained valuable experience and would benefit from starters' reps throughout camp.

Instead of 10.1 wins with Manning, SportsLine has Denver winning 10.7 games with Osweiler. It gives the Broncos a 7.7 percent chance of repeating, compared to 6.2 percent with Manning.

Scott Cooley, odds consultant for major offshore sportsbook BookMaker, agreed Manning's retirement won't affect Denver's odds much.

Data curated by PointAfter

"The betting community as a whole was down on Denver and Peyton Manning in general last season, so the public doesn't see as much of a dropoff without him under center," Cooley told SportsLine. "They'll remember the games Osweiler won and trust he's serviceable. As far as their win total, you're talking about a half-win adjustment or just some juice. As long as that defense remains mostly intact, the offense can manage."

A month ago, CG Technology sportsbooks opened Denver's win total at 9.5, shading toward the Under at -120. The total has not moved.

The Broncos went 12-4 (8-8 ATS) last season. With a broken-down Manning and Osweiler piloting the offense, the Under went 9-6-1 in Broncos' games.

Larry HartsteinSenior Analyst