CFB: Analyst Offers Season-Win Total Predictions for Every Team In The Big 12

SportsLine senior analyst Josh Nagel takes a look at the odds and provides a selection for the season-win total of every club in the Big 12.
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Sportsbooks have set their odds and prices on college football season-win totals, and we're ready to take an in-depth look at the betting board. 

BetDSI has released a full menu of such proposition wagers for the Big 12, offering over-under numbers on the fortunes of every program.

Here is a team-by-team look at the Big 12, along with odds and a projection for each team:

Oklahoma 2018 regular-season win total:
Over 10.5 (-110)
Under 10.5 (-120)

Pick: Under

It would be an overreaction to anticipate doom for the Sooners now that Heisman-winning quarterback Baker Mayfield is off to the NFL. However, this total feels a bit ambitious for an Oklahoma team that, despite returning plenty of talent and navigating a rather favorable schedule, still has some question marks. Dual-threat quarterback Kyler Murray signed a multi-million dollar contract with the Oakland Athletics, but is putting his baseball career on hold for one season while he plays for the Sooners. You have to wonder if this dynamic could impact Oklahoma's season. For instance, if Murray suffers a minor injury, there's a possibility he sits the rest of the way in order to preserve his health in the best interests of his future. Another concern is a two-game stretch against Texas and TCU that could result in a pair of losses. The Sooners are still the justifiable favorite to win another Big 12 title, but given that this total only allows for one loss of wiggle room, the Under is the only way to go.

Oklahoma State 2018 regular-season win total:
Over 8.5 (-115)
Under 8.5 (-115)

Pick: Over

The Cowboys failed to meet lofty expectations last year, as many observers projected them as a potential Big 12 champion and playoff contender. They were felled down the stretch by a vulnerable defense that allowed 107 points in losses to Oklahoma and Kansas State. The coaching staff has implemented a 4-2-5 scheme in a effort to slow down opponents. A new era awaits now that veteran quarterback Mason Rudolph and receiver James Washington are off to the pros. Fifth-year senior and former walk-on Taylor Cornelius was recently named the front-runner for the starting quarterback job by coach Mike Gundy. Explosive running back Justice Hill will be the focal point of the offense, while reliable receiver Jalen McCleskey returns for his senior year. A soft early schedule makes a 6-0 start a real possibility. But the history of Gundy's clubs usually winning and losing a game they shouldn't are factors that cancel each other out. The Cowboys could conceivably lose at Kansas State, Oklahoma and TCU and still beat this generous total. Gundy's teams tend to thrive amid lower expectations. Back the Over.


TCU 2018 regular-season win total:
Over 8 (-115)
Under 8 (-115)

Pick: Over

Coach Gary Patterson's club will have plenty of rebuilding to do on both sides of the ball. The Horned Frogs won 11 games last season despite the erratic play of enigmatic quarterback Kenny Hill, whose sometimes error-prone ways were maddening and didn't mesh with TCU's long history of dependable signal-callers. However, Hill ended his career on a high note by leading the Frogs back from a three-score deficit to beat Stanford in a bowl game. However, highly regarded dual-threat Shawn Robinson should turn into an upgrade under center. Patterson's signature stingy defense held up with the exception of its pair of losses to Oklahoma. But the Horned Frogs must replace nearly all their leaders on the defensive side and will be relatively inexperienced. Even so, it's historically a bad idea to bet against Patterson-coached teams. The schedule features high-profile home games against Ohio State and Oklahoma, and TCU will likely be the underdog in both. There's a good chance of a push against this total, but the Over also feels like a free roll. It's easy to envision the Frogs already having eight wins when they host Oklahoma State in the regular-season finale. You have to like your chances in this scenario.

Kansas State 2018 regular-season win total:
Over 7 (-110)
Under 7 (-120)

Pick: Over

This is another total feels realistically headed toward a push, but with full benefit of the doubt given to iconic veteran coach Bill Snyder and his uncanny knack for crafting winning clubs despite sometimes dire circumstances. Last year, the Wildcats managed to win five of their last six despite an injury-plagued season that saw them down to their fifth-string quarterback at one point. But now, two solid quarterbacks return in the steady Skylar Thompson and explosive Alex Delton, each of whom were impressive at times last season. Leading rusher Alex Barnes, who had 819 yards and seven scores, also returns. A somewhat inconsistent defense, that was particularly poor in the pass rush, needs to be addressed. The real key to this total is a Week 2 home matchup with Mississippi State. The Wildcats will be ahead of pace if they pick up a win against the Bulldogs. Back-to-back trips to TCU and Oklahoma won't help the cause. However, a season-ending trip to rival Iowa State, with seven wins in the bank, projects as a likely scenario.


West Virginia 2018 regular-season win total:
Over 7 (-120)
Under 7 (-110)

Pick: Under

A pivotal factor for the Mountaineers is the return of Will Grier, who will be the most experienced returning quarterback in the Big 12 and has been mentioned as a dark-horse Heisman candidate. All-America wideout David Sills, who tied for the nation lead with 18 touchdown catches, returns to the fold. Gary Jennings, who had 1,096 receiving yards, also will be among Grier's experienced targets. While they will likely continue to win their share of shootouts, the defense remains a major concern. West Virginia gave up more than 200 rushing yards per game last year and also loses the top three players from its secondary. A tough nonconference slate doesn't help matters as a 1-2 start looms as a real possibility. The Mountaineers could easily push this total, but eight wins feels ambitious, while six or fewer isn't out of the question.

Texas 2018 regular-season win total:
Over 7 (-105)
Under 7 (-125)

Pick: Over

The Longhorns were erratic in their first season under Tom Herman, starting with a stunning opening-day loss to Maryland as a nearly three-touchdown favorite and including agonizing overtime losses to USC and Oklahoma State in which they dominated much of the way. They also saw a thrilling second-half comeback against rival Oklahoma come up just short. But they took care of inferior opponents and finished strong with a bowl win over a then-hot Missouri club. Texas' sputtering offense was a bit of a surprise given Herman's reputation as an offensive maven, particularly while he was the head coach at Houston. But dual-threat Sam Ehlinger, a bruising runner and poised leader, appears prepared to be one of the conference's more dangerous playmakers. The Longhorns have to replace several key contributors from the secondary and at linebacker. Look for improvement in Herman's second season to an eight-win minimum team.

Iowa State 2018 regular-season win total:
Over 6 (-110)
Under 6 (-120)

Pick: Under

The Cyclones nearly threw the Big 12's playoff chances into a tailspin last year with stunning wins over Oklahoma and TCU, both of which were ranked the top five at the time. They fell just short of a sweep of Big 12 heavyweights by falling 49-42 at home to Oklahoma State. Even so, the program made a real transformation from its longtime reputation as a stubborn pest to one that finally finishes off opponents under coach Matt Campbell is a major leap that deserves recognition. Even so, Iowa State will be hard-pressed for a duplicate performance. Veteran quarterback Kyle Kempt and explosive running back David Montgomery return, but Iowa State will be inexperienced at receiver. Linebacker Joel Lanning heads a long list of experienced defensive players who will be missed. It's possible Campbell and his club could prove doubters wrong again. But six wins and a push would be respectable against a difficult schedule, and five wouldn't be a surprise.


Texas Tech 2018 regular-season win total:
Over 5.5 (-120)
Under 5.5 (-110)

Pick: Under

Beating rival Texas on the road with a last-minute drive in last year's regular-season finale almost certainly saved the job of coach Kliff Kingsbury. Whether this is for the long-term benefit of the program remains open to interpretation. The Red Raiders put up their usual flashy numbers on offense and actually improved to the seventh-ranked defense in the Big 12. But nearly 70 percent of the offensive production must be replaced, led by senior quarterback Nic Shimonek and three starting receivers.Explosive sophomore wideout T.J. Vasher likely will be the featured playmaker. Early-season showdowns with Ole Miss and Houston will heavily influence this win total, and Texas Tech will be in decent shape if it manages a 3-0 start. The Red Raiders could get to six wins with a home victory over Baylor in the final week, but I'm leaning toward the Under given the massive personnel overhaul.

Baylor 2018 regular-season win total:
Over 5 (-115)
Under 5 (-115)

Pick: Over

The Bears predictably struggled in their first year under Matt Rhule, the former Temple coach charged with picking up the pieces following the tumult-filled departure of former coach Art Briles. Even so, a one-win season that included losses to Liberty and UTSA was a much more drastic downfall than most observers anticipated. But the Bears gradually improved, as indicated by them pushing Oklahoma and West Virginia to the wire in one-score losses. They have a decent returning core and a well-regarded recruiting class that will be expected to contribute immediately. Sophomore Charlie Brewer gained valuable experience and showed promise in four starts at quarterback last year. Leading receiver Denzel Mims is among the returning playmakers. A soft early schedule could result in a 4-0 start, which provides a free roll against this number with just one more win. Granted, two more is a difficult ask and, although a push feels likely, there is some value on the Over.

Kansas 2018 regular-season win total:
Over 3 (-115)
Under 3 (-115)

Pick: Under

Until further notice, the Under has to be the position on a Kansas program that has won just four conference games since 2010. That notice isn't coming now. Which is a shame, considering coach David Beaty has done a commendable job with this perpetually moribund program. But the Jayhawks took a step back last year, with a 10-point loss to Kansas State standing as their closest contest in conference play. The good news is they will have one of the more experienced rosters in the Big 12, led by nine returning starters on offense. In fact, Kansas returns 91 percent of its total production on both sides of the ball, which is second in the country to Michigan State. Speedy receiver Steven Sims, who had 839 yards and six touchdowns last year, will be a featured cog in the offense. There's a decent chance Kansas could win two of its first three, but that would leave needing an ever-elusive conference win just to push this total. The Under has to be the lean here. 

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Josh NagelSenior Analyst