Advanced model updates Titans' projected win total

The Tennessee Titans turned in their fourth consecutive 9-7 season in 2019, but there's something to be said about getting hot at the right time. Because after Ryan Tannehill took over for Marcus Mariota as the starter in Week 7, the Titans won seven of their last 10 games and rode the momentum they had created in the regular season all the way to the AFC Championship Game, where they actually jumped out to an early 17-7 lead before Kansas City came back and eventually went on to win Super Bowl 54.

Tannehill's Comeback Player of the Year campaign earned him a four-year, $118 million extension during the offseason and saw Derrick Henry franchise tagged. And while the Titans were largely quiet in NFL free agency after making those commitments, they did manage to add some potential pass-rush help by signing former Falcons first-round pick Vic Beasley to a one-year, $9.5 million deal.

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At the 2020 NFL Draft, the Titans began their draft by addressing a need at offensive tackle created by Jack Conklin's departure in free agency. Tennessee selected Georgia tackle Isaiah Wilson with the No. 29 overall pick and Wilson will compete with Dennis Kelly and Ty Sambrailo for the starting job at right tackle.

On Day Two, the Colts landed LSU cornerback Kristian Fulton to give them four solid cornerback options on the roster and then added some insurance for Henry by taking Appalachian State running back Darrynton Evans in the third round. With just three picks remaining on the final day of the draft, Tennessee added defensive depth and also drafted a developmental quarterback prospect in Hawaii QB Cole McDonald.

Ultimately, with Beasley, Wilson and Fulton likely the only major contributors added this offseason, the Titans are banking on Tannehill and Henry to continue producing the way they did over the last three months of the 2019 season. But will that be enough in an AFC South that has been extremely hard-fought in recent years?

The SportsLine Projection Model predicts that the Titans win an average of 8.5 games in the computer's 10,000 simulations of the 2020 NFL season, down from 8.7 projected wins prior to the 2020 NFL Draft. Tennessee wins the division 46.6 percent of the time and makes the playoffs 60.4 percent of the time. The Titans are also currently 35-1 to Win Super Bowl 55 according to William Hill, which is tied for 18th-best odds in the NFL.