Advanced model updates Packers' projected win total

After six consecutive years of playoff heartbreak and then two disappointing sub-.500 seasons, the Green Bay Packers turned the franchise over to Matt LaFleur in 2019 and few could have predicted the immediate shift as the Packers went 13-3 to win the NFC North before losing the NFC Championship Game. So as we head towards 2020, it was a little peculiar that the Packers have seemed to be more forward facing than giving Aaron Rodgers the support he needs to win a championship now.

NFL free agency was always going to be a struggle given Green Bay's salary cap situation, but losing Blake Martinez, Bryan Bulaga, Jimmy Graham and Kyler Fackrell still stings. The Packers did manage to make a few quality additions like linebacker Christian Kirksey, right tackle Ricky Wagner and wide receiver Devin Funchess, but most were looking towards the 2020 NFL Draft as the best opportunity for the Packers to give Rodgers additional support.

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Then in one of the oddest moves of the offseason so far, the Packers traded up from No. 30 to No. 26 and selected Utah State quarterback Jordan Love. With Rodgers signed through 2023 and basically immovable until 2021, Love is now scheduled to sit on the bench for two or three years, and while it's reminiscent of the move they made when they drafted Rodgers as Brett Favre's replacement, it's different because those Packers were coming off a 4-12 season where Favre hadn't looked very sharp.

Rodgers is coming off a Pro Bowl season and seemed to think the Packers might use their first-round pick to take advantage of one of the deepest wide receiver classes in recent memory. Green Bay would eventually go on to draft a running back, a tight end and three offensive lineman, but none are guaranteed to be immediate contributors and the Packers did not select a wide receiver at all.

And while Rodgers has seemed to take the high road from the reporting we're hearing, there's no question that Green Bay's lack of urgency coming off a 13-3 season with a 36-year-old starting quarterback is puzzling. Now the question becomes, will this offseason have any lasting impact on Rodgers' psyche given that we know he had friction with Mike McCarthy before he was ousted in 2018. And what could that mean for the 2020 NFL season?

The SportsLine Projection Model predicts that the Packers win an average of 7.9 games in the computer's 10,000 simulations of the 2020 NFL season, down from 8.4 projected wins prior to the 2020 NFL Draft. Green Bay wins the division 19.7 percent of the time and makes the playoffs 39.5 percent of the time. The Packers are also currently 18-1 to Win Super Bowl 55 according to William Hill, which is ninth-best odds in the NFL.