Advanced model updates Buccaneers' projected win total

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers saw modest improvement in their first season with Bruce Arians at the helm, going from 5-11 in 2018 to 7-9 a season ago while ranking third in scoring offense and total offense. And that was plenty for the franchise to decide that this offseason was the perfect opportunity to put the pedal to the medal and make a push towards the top of the NFC South and the conference as a whole.

The Buccaneers signed arguably the greatest player in the history of the league during NFL free agency, inking Tom Brady to a two-year, $50 million contract. Then they reunited Brady with one of his favorite targets of all-time by trading for the right to Rob Gronkowski, who is now expected to come out of retirement. And entering the 2020 NFL Draft, the Buccaneers were looking to add a few more pieces to a roster they now expect to contend for a title.

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Tampa Bay stayed aggressive in last week's 2020 NFL Draft, spending most of the first round looking for a trade partner to move up and select an offensive tackle to aid in Brady's protection before inevitably moving up one spot to take Iowa tackle Tristan Wirfs. They also gave Brady and Arians a couple more playmaking options on offense by drafting Vanderbilt running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn in the third round and Minnesota wide receiver Tyler Johnson in the fifth round.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Buccaneers got a steal in the second round when they took Minnesota safety Antoine Winfield, Jr., who many thought could be a late first-round pick. Winfield's father was a three-time Pro Bowler for the Vikings and Winfield blew everybody away last year with seven interceptions in his senior season with the Golden Gophers.

For an offense that was already one of the best in the NFL to upgrade at quarterback and tight end while welcoming back Pro Bowl wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the Buccaneers have to feel like they can score with anybody as they enter the 2020 NFL season. But the question will be can they make enough of a defensive improvement to catch the Saints in the NFC South?

The SportsLine Projection Model predicts that the Buccaneers win an average of 8.7 games in the computer's 10,000 simulations of the 2020 NFL season, up from 8.2 projected wins prior to the 2020 NFL Draft. Tampa Bay wins the division 21.1 percent of the time and makes the playoffs 53.8 percent of the time. The Buccaneers are currently 12-1 to Win Super Bowl 55 according to William Hill, which is tied for fifth-best odds in the NFL.