Advanced model updates Bears' projected win total

After winning 12 games in 2018, the Chicago Bears entered the 2019 season with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. However, with the offense taking a significant step back and the defense failing to carry the franchise as dominantly as it did the year prior, the Bears stumbled to a disappointing 8-8 record.

So as they entered the 2020 NFL offseason, general manager Ryan Pace and head coach Matt Nagy knew that they'd need to make the most out of limited resources to improve a roster with some pretty glaring holes. In NFL free agency, they made splashes by signing defensive end Robert Quinn and tight end Jimmy Graham, then they brought in competition for Mitchell Trubisky by trading for Nick Foles.

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Unfortunately, the Bears entered the 2020 NFL Draft without a lot of draft equity thanks to sending two first-round picks to the Raiders for Khalil Mack prior to the 2018 season and several other trades that left them without third and fourth-round picks as well. But the Bears did have two second-round picks and used them on Notre Dame tight end Cole Kmet and Utah cornerback Jaylon Johnson, who should be significant contributors out of the gates.

Chicago would go on to make five more selections on Day Three, adding some intriguing speed with wide receiver Darnell Mooney in the fifth round and then adding a couple of developmental offensive line prospects in the seventh round. Ultimately, the franchise has a solid history of finding value later in the draft, so if they can get productivity from one or two of those late-round picks it should help a team that looks solid defensively again and has some remaining questions on offense.

The Bears have continued to address issues since the draft as well, signing wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr. and safety Tashaun Gipson this week to add more speed on the outside and an expected starter alongside All-Pro Eddie Jackson. But with the Lions making improvements and the Packers and Vikings currently atop the division, can the Bears get back into serious contention in 2020?

The SportsLine Projection Model predicts that the Bears win an average of 7.6 games in the computer's 10,000 simulations of the 2020 NFL season, down from 8.5 projected wins prior to the 2020 NFL Draft. Chicago wins the division 14.3 percent of the time and makes the playoffs 32.4 percent of the time. The Bears are also currently 40-1 to Win Super Bowl 55 according to William Hill, which is tied for 19th-best odds in the NFL.