NFL free agency kicked off on Monday with the league's legal tampering period. And even though contracts cannot officially be announced until Wednesday, news of 2019 NFL free agents agreeing to terms with teams has started to leak. The SportsLine Projection Model has been hard at work tracking all of the roster changes and already has adjusted season win totals for teams based on the transactions.
The model is coming off a banner season in 2018. It went 30-15 on all top-rated picks last year, extending its two-year run to a blistering 78-49.
It has simulated the entire 2019 season 10,000 times and found that the biggest winners in NFL free agency so far are the Jets. As of Wednesday afternoon, the Jets have reportedly agreed to terms with linebacker C.J. Mosley (five years, $85 million) and receivers Jamison Crowder (three years, $28.5 million) and Josh Bellamy (two years, $7 million). According to the model, the moves have increased the team's win total from 7.5 to 8.6, which is the biggest jump in the league. New York's playoff chances also doubled, from 19.6 percent to 39.1 percent.
The team with the second biggest win jump, according to the model, is Jacksonville. The Jaguars, who among other moves added Super Bowl-winning quarterback Nick Foles (four years, $88 million), have gone from a projected 5.7 wins to 6.7.
The model says that the biggest loser has been Baltimore. Since the beginning of March, the Ravens have lost four starters: Mosley, safety Eric Weddle and pass rushers Terrell Suggs and Za'Darius Smith. The losses have helped dropped the team's win total from 9.3 to 8.6. Baltimore's playoff chances also decreased to 35.3 percent, from 50.7.
The model also says that the Eagles' win total has taken a hit. The combination of losing Foles and improvements by their opponents have lowered the total from 9.0 wins to 8.4. Philadelphia now has only a 48.6 percent chance of making the playoffs, which is down from 62.9 percent at the beginning of the month.