Tom Brady turns 40 in August.
That's basically the only argument you can make against him having a monster 2017 season.
So it was a bit surprising when a major sportsbook opened Brady's Over/Under at 33.5 touchdown passes.
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Bettors at BookMaker.eu immediately jumped on the Over, prompting an odds adjustment. Now you have to risk $135 just to win $100 if you think Brady will throw at least 34 TD passes.
The proposition opened at -115 (risk $115 to win $100) either way.
From BookMaker.eu: Tom Brady passing touchdowns during 2017-18 regular season
Over 33.5 (-135, risk $135 to win $100)
Under 33.5 (+105, risk $100 to win $105)
With lightning-fast Brandin Cooks joining a group of targets that includes Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell, Dwayne Allen and Dion Lewis, Brady has his most dangerous cast in years.
Here are Brady's TD passes over the past 10 years:
2007: 50 (second-most in NFL history)
2008: 0 (injured in opener, missed the whole season)
2016: 28 (missed four games due to Deflategate suspension)
Who better to make this pick than CBS Sports Senior Fantasy Writer Jamey Eisenberg? He told SportsLine he's going Over.
"Knowing the Patriots, they'll probably aim to get him 40 touchdowns -- one for each year of his age," Eisenberg said. "There are too many weapons for Brady this year that he should easily get to 35 touchdowns. I'd expect at least 15 to his receivers, 15 to his tight ends and five to his running backs."
Pick: I'm not going against Eisenberg. With LeGarrette Blount (18 rushing TDs last year) having moved on to the Eagles, I can see Brady padding his stats with a bunch of short scoring throws.
Can Brady average 2.125 TD passes per game? Easily. That's what he'll need to finish with 34.
Go Over as Brady's revenge tour rolls on.