Every day leading up to Super Bowl LI, SportsLine will provide a free recommendation on one big-game prop. Today we focus on MVP frontrunner Matt Ryan, who took his game to a new level this season.
MATT RYAN'S NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS (From CG Technology)
Over 24.5 (-115)
Under 24.5 (-115)
The Patriots gave up an average of 23 completions this season.
But look at the quarterbacks they faced. The list includes Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty, Jared Goff, Landry Jones, Cody Kessler, Colin Kaepernick, Brock Osweiler, Tyrod Taylor and Trevor Siemian.
Ryan is in an incredible zone right now. In his last four games, he's completed 27, 27, 26 and 27 passes. Each time he hit at least 70 percent of his throws.
The Patriots will limit the run -- they give up 88.6 yards per game, third-fewest, and 3.9 yards per carry. And with the Falcons expected to be trailing, Ryan will be forced to throw nearly 40 times.
Ryan has gone Over 24.5 completions in 11 of 18 games this year. You can throw out two of his Unders; they came in easy blowouts of the 49ers and Rams, when Ryan didn't need to throw in the second half.
The SportsLine Projection Model expects Ryan to complete 25 passes. Just one more reason to go Over on this prop.