Green Bay Packers-Detroit Lions Picks Against the Spread

Senior analyst Larry Hartstein breaks down Packers-Lions from a betting perspective to get you set for this decisive battle for the NFC North, the final game of the regular season.

 

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT DETROIT LIONS (+3.5, O/U 49.5), Sun., 8:30 p.m. ET

As long as the Redskins beat a Giants team with nothing to play for, Packers-Lions on Sunday night is an all-or-nothing affair. The winner takes the NFC North crown, the loser stays home.

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Sun 01/01 8:30 PM EST
Green Bay -200 O/U 50.5
Detroit +170 +3.5
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VIEW FULL GAME ANALYSIS

It's hard to make a case against Green Bay, especially if you can lay 3, not 3.5.

Aaron Rodgers has thrown 14 TDs and zero INTs the past six weeks. The Packers have won five straight (4-1 ATS), averaging 35.3 points the last three weeks.

Detroit comes in on a two-game skid, having been outscored 59-27, and has failed to cover three in a row.

But the raucous atmosphere at Ford Field -- Detroit is gunning for its division title in 23 years -- should lift the Lions.

And top corner Darius Slay is expected to return from a hamstring injury that kept him out Week 16. With Slay watching, Dez Bryant torched Detroit's secondary Monday night.

Jordy Nelson could follow suit if Slay is not able to move like he needs to.

Green Bay won the first meeting 34-27 in a game that wasn't that close. It was 31-3 Pack in the second quarter.

With Rodgers likely to keep rolling, it will be up to Matthew Stafford to play more efficiently than he has lately. In 11 quarters since dislocating the tip of the middle finger on his throwing hand, Stafford has committed five turnovers.

If the Redskins lose -- they're favored by 7.5 points -- both the Lions and Packers get in, the winner hosting a playoff game as division champ and the loser going on the road as a wild card.

LINE MOVEMENT

Green Bay universally opened as a field-goal favorite. Now several books are dealing Packers -3.5, with others back at -3.

"We moved to -3.5 for a few hours yesterday but took some sharp money on Detroit and dropped right back to the opener," BookMaker spokesman Scott Cooley said. "The public will certainly be on the Packers but things could go haywire should the Redskins lose to New York earlier in the day."

By Saturday afternoon, the total had risen a half-point from 48 to 49.5. The money line held relatively steady at Packers -180.

TRENDS

Each side has a lot of trends pointing its way.

The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the past nine meetings but the home team is on a 6-2 ATS run. Green Bay has covered eight of the past 11 matchups.

Detroit has covered five of its past six home games. Green Bay is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 January games.

The Under is 8-1 in Detroit's last nine games, but the Over is 7-2 in Green Bay's last nine.

SELECTION

Mike "Top Dog" Tierney, who's 36-27-4 on NFL picks this season, has a strong play on this game. Get all SportsLine expert picks on Packers-Lions here.