Seattle Seahawks-Green Bay Packers Picks Against the Spread

SportsLine analyst Josh Nagel takes a look at Sunday's key NFC showdown between the division-leading Seahawks and a Packers team desperate to remain in playoff contention. Here is an overview and ATS recommendation.

 

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (+3, O/U 46.5), Sun., 4:25 p.m. ET  

An NFC showdown that will potentially impact the playoff race takes place Sunday afternoon when Seattle visits Green Bay.

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Sun 12/11 4:25 PM EST
Seattle -145 O/U 46.5
Green Bay +125 +3
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VIEW FULL GAME ANALYSIS

It's a much for crucial game for the Packers, who moved to 6­-6 with their win over the Texans last Sunday.

They have won two straight following a four-game losing skid, but still trail the Lions by two games in the NFC North and are two games out of the wild-card chase.

Conversely, Seattle has a firm three-game grip on the NFC West at 8-3-1 but are looking to avoid a late-season letdown and the slim chance of being caught by the Cardinals (5-6-1).

LINE MOVEMENT

This spread opened at Seattle -2.5 almost universally, but was quickly moved to the key number of -3 in most markets, where it remained the consensus line as of Thursday afternoon.

Hesitant to move from a key number, most outlets have adjusted the vigorish on either side in order to invite two-way action. Bookmaker.eu spokesman Scott Cooley said the sportsbook has yet to receive significant action on this game.

"The minimal movement is almost 100 percent based on public betting, as the sharps haven't made a position as of yet," he said. "I know we'll get more Packers money from the public once the weekend rolls around, so if the sharps stay away, this could ultimately drop below the key number."

The total, which opened at 46.5, had fallen two points by Saturday. The forecast for gametime calls for a 50% chance of snow, but not much wind.

LAST WEEK

The Packers used two fourth-quarter touchdowns to create some separation from Houston, and held on for a 21-13 win to cover the spread as a 6.5-point home favorite. Green Bay has now won and covered two straight after a four-game losing streak in which it covered just once.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks jumped on the fading Panthers early in their Sunday night prime-time matchup. They built a 16-point halftime lead and cruised to a 40-7 win to easily clear the 7.5-point spread as a home favorite.

TRENDS

The Seahawks have covered five straight Week 14 games and are 7-1 ATS in their last eight after scoring 30 or more in their previous game.

The Packers are 6-1 ATS in their past seven December games and are 9-2 ATS after allowing 15 points or fewer in their previous game.

The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and Seattle has failed to cover in four straight visits to Green Bay.

SPORTSLINE EXPERTS

Football analyst R.J. White of CBS Sports has an official selection on this game. Get his and all other SportsLine expert picks by clicking here.

SELECTION

I'm supporting the home underdog in this spot. The motivational factors heavily favor the Packers, who have won their last two home games while allowing just 23 total points and 496 total yards.

Moreover, the Seahawks have extreme home-road splits, and the majority of their performances away from Seattle have been ugly.

They have lost to three teams with losing records, missed a prime opportunity to beat the Cardinals in the game that ended in a tie, while their road win over New England stands as their signature performance this season.

These teams are surprisingly close in both total offense and defense, which gives the edge to the home team while getting a key number in your favor.