Oddsmakers disagree strongly on Patriots-Cowboys Super Bowl line

The Cowboys and Patriots could very well meet in Super Bowl 51. Oddsmakers have dramatically different opinions on what the pointspread should be.


People are salivating over a Cowboys-Patriots Super Bowl.

So what would the spread be?

We talked to three major sportsbook operators and got zero consensus.

The top oddsmaker for William Hill's 100-plus Nevada sportsbooks, Nick Bogdanovich, told SportsLine he'd make the game a pick'-em.

"I think Dallas is every bit as good as New England," Bogdanovich said. "New England is gettable, though everyone wanted to give them the championship the fourth week. ... The Cowboys are drawing huge money, the public is back on the Cowboys, so it's public team versus public team."

CG Technology, which run sportsbooks at the Venetian, Palms, Hard Rock and elsewhere, would list the Pats as 1.5-point favorites, per VP Jason Simbal.

A major offshore book, BookMaker.eu, would post New England -4.

Super Bowl Lines from CG Tech
 Matchup Spread
 DAL-NE Patriots -1.5
 DAL-OAK Cowboys -3
 SEA-NE Patriots -3
 SEA-OAK Seahawks -2.5

"The Cowboys remain America's Team, but the New England Patriots are a recent dynasty that has the playoff pedigree and experience," spokesman Scott Cooley told SportsLine.

"We'll always get support for Dallas at the wagering window, but if this Super Bowl matchup happens, you're looking at a squad with two rookies determining what Dallas produces offensively and Tom Brady and Bill Belichick on the other side.

"My guess is you'd have a lot of smart bettors lining up to take the Pats at anything less than 4 points."


You can already bet on the Super Bowl throughout Las Vegas. The AFC is a 3-point favorite at the Westgate LV SuperBook and William Hill, a 2.5-point favorite at CG Tech.

Those numbers try to account for all possible matchups.

"Obviously there are two or three strong teams from each conference and that's basically an average," Bogdanovich said. "It's just a market; people are betting it. It's been as high as AFC -7 (when Brady returned from suspension, Gronk was healthy, and the Pats were steamrolling opponents).

"We're getting close to lowering it below 3," he added. "There's been a trend toward the NFC the last couple weeks."

The Cowboys have won 11 straight, while the Seahawks looked dominant on national TV Sunday night, whipping Carolina 40-7.

Oakland, which like New England is 10-2, currently holds the tiebreaker for home field throughout the AFC playoffs. The Raiders would be underdogs to both the Cowboys (+3) and Seahawks (+2.5), according to Simbal.

Cowboys-Raiders would be just as good as Cowboys-Patriots for drawing action, Bogdanovich said.

"The Raiders are a marquee franchise and they have such an exciting team," he said. "Those two matchups would be the best for us."

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Larry combines a vast network of Vegas and offshore sources with an analytical approach he honed during his years working for Pro Football Focus. Larry specializes in the NFL. In 2015 he went 35-25-2 (58 percent) on NFL game picks, 3-1 on season win total plays and 4-1 on Super Bowl props. Larry correctly predicted Joe Philbin would be the first NFL coach fired -- at 15/1 odds -- and even nailed the week he'd be dismissed.