Los Angeles Rams-New England Patriots Picks Against the Spread

Senior analyst Larry Hartstein breaks down Rams-Patriots from a betting perspective and explores where the value lies in this apparent mismatch.

 

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-13.5, O/U 44.5), Sun., 1 p.m. ET

The Rams have lost six of seven and are coming off a 28-point drubbing at the hands of the Saints. Now they hit the road again, cross-country, to face the Super Bowl favorites.

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L.A. Rams +600 O/U 44.5
New England -900 -13
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Their once-vaunted defense has given up nine touchdowns in the past 15 drives. Good luck, Jared Goff, keeping up with Tom Brady.

Obvious blowout, right?

Maybe not, given the state of the Patriots.

New England has failed to cover two of its past three games, Brady is playing through a knee injury, and Rob Gronkowski is headed for back surgery.

The defense, minus Jamie Collins, ended a three-game turnover drought by getting two against the Jets.

But Brady said his knee feels better this week than it did last week. The leading MVP candidate looked fine in the fourth quarter at MetLife, completing 10 of 16 throws for 124 yards and the winning TD to Malcolm Mitchell.

Rams rookie QB Jared Goff showed promise in his second start and might learn a thing or two watching Brady operate Sunday.

With the spread approaching two touchdowns, you can easily see this one getting out of hand and the Rams driving for a backdoor cover late.

In the "for what it's worth" department, Bill Belichick's Pats have outscored Jeff Fisher's teams 104-7 in the last two meetings. (Pats 45, Rams 7 in 2012; Pats 59, Titans 0 in 2009).

LINE MOVEMENT

The spread has bounced between 13 and 13.5 all week, while the total has been bet consistently Under by professionals.

It opened at 46 and has fallen to 44 or 44.5 at most books.

"The sharp guys who have been consistently betting the Rams Under all year have jumped right back on board, not phased by the daunting Patriots offense," said BookMaker.eu's odds consultant, Scott Cooley. "We're down to 44 after opening at 46, and it could keep dropping."

Gronk's injury didn't seem to scare bettors, as the line stood pat at 13.5 as of Saturday afternoon. The Rams money line was almost +600.

TRENDS

New England is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following an ATS loss, and 8-3-2 ATS in its last 11 home games.

The Rams are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games and 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games on Fieldturf.

The Under is 7-0 in the Rams' last seven games vs. winning teams.

SELECTION

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