New England Patriots-New York Jets Picks Against the Spread

Senior analyst Larry Hartstein breaks down Patriots-Jets from a betting perspective as New England tries to cover against New York for the first time in the past seven meetings (0-5-1 ATS).

 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT NEW YORK JETS (+8, O/U 47), Sun., 4:25 p.m. ET

The Patriots continue to own the AFC East, but one thing they haven't done lately is cover against the Jets.

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Sun 11/27 4:25 PM EST
New England -420 O/U 48
N.Y. Jets +361 +9
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B
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NYJ
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New England is 0-5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The last three at MetLife Stadium were a 26-20 Jets' overtime win, a one-point Pats' win, and a three-point Jets' win.

But does history matter? These Jets are a 3-7 mess looking at another major rebuild. They'll start Ryan Fitzpatrick (8 TDs, 13 INTs) on Sunday because they don't have a better option.

Their vaunted D-line has gotten just four sacks combined from Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson.

The Pats have taken some hits defensively through trades and injuries, but they're still 8-2 ATS, covering each of their wins. They'll likely have to make do again without tight end Rob Gronkowski (lung).

New England is 5-0 SU and ATS on the road.

The Over is 12-3-1 in these teams' last 16 meetings, including 5-1 in the past six in New Jersey.

LINE MOVEMENT

BookMaker.eu opened at New England -9 and has taken professional money on the Jets.

"It just feels like one of those games where you're going to get the Jets' best effort of the season," BookMaker odds consultant Scott Cooley told SportsLine. "This could be similar to last week's 49ers matchup where the Pats close a few points south of where they opened based on sharp money."

The total had dropped several points to 45.5 as of Saturday afternoon.

LAST WEEK

The Jets were off after their embarrassing 9-6 home loss to the Rams. They're 3-7 ATS, including 1-3 ATS at home.

The Pats covered the closing number of 10.5 in their 30-17 win at San Fran, but many sharps had gotten on the 49ers at +13 or higher. New England led only 13-10 entering the fourth quarter.

SELECTION

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A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Larry combines a vast network of Vegas and offshore sources with an analytical approach he honed during his years working for Pro Football Focus. Larry specializes in the NFL. In 2015 he went 35-25-2 (58 percent) on NFL game picks, 3-1 on season win total plays and 4-1 on Super Bowl props. Larry correctly predicted Joe Philbin would be the first NFL coach fired -- at 15/1 odds -- and even nailed the week he'd be dismissed.