Dallas Cowboys-Washington Redskins Picks Against the Spread

SportsLine analyst Josh Nagel overviews this traditional Thanksgiving showdown between these heated NFC East rivals. Here is a preview and ATS selection on the game.

 

WASHINGTON REDSKINS AT DALLAS COWBOYS (-7, O/U 51), Thurs., 4:30 p.m. ET 

These NFC East rivals meet Thursday in what rates to likely be the most entertaining NFL showdown on Thanksgiving.

Sportsline Image
EXCLUSIVE TO SPORTSLINE PRO MEMBERS
Thu 11/24 4:30 PM EST
Washington +220 O/U 53
Dallas -260 -5.5
C
C
B
WAS
DAL
VIEW FULL GAME ANALYSIS

The Cowboys (9-1) remained the league's hottest team by warding off a slow start and defeating the Ravens 27-17 on Sunday for their ninth straight win.

Meanwhile, the Redskins stayed in wild-card contention with perhaps the most impressive showing of the weekend as they pulled away from the Packers 42-24 in the Sunday night prime-time game to improve to 6-3-1.

Washington has won its last two visits to Dallas, and won on the road on Thanksgiving against the Cowboys in 2012. Dallas is 5-1 overall in this series on Thanksgiving. 

In 2013, the Cowboys were 10-point favorites against the Raiders in Dallas, but failed to cover in the 31-24 victory. 

LINE MOVEMENT

Several markets opened this game at Dallas -6.5, while others opted to post the key number of Dallas -7 from the get-go. As of Wednesday afternoon, Dallas -7 remained the universal spread. 

"Currently we have about 70 percent of the handle on the home team. I don't see this getting out of hand, as there will be another set of wiseguys ready to jump on anything above the key number," Bookmaker.eu spokesman Scott Cooley said. 

The total has seen some significant movement, as most shops opened at 48.5 but have already moved to 51, and the number appears likely to continue to climb.

LAST WEEK

Kirk Cousins threw for 375 yards and three touchdowns against zero interceptions as he outdueled Aaron Rodgers in leading the Redskins to 515 yards of total offense. Rookie running back Robert Kelly provided a spark with 137 yards and three scores as Washington broke open a right game late and easily cleared the field-goal spread as a short home favorite.

Meanwhile, Dallas fell behind early against Baltimore as the Ravens' top-ranked defense held the Cowboys in check for most of the first half, which ended in a 10-10.

But Dak Prescott heated up in the second half, and the rookie finished with 301 passing yards and three touchdowns. Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 97 yards and the Cowboys added a late field goal to cover the touchdown spread in their 27-17 win.

TRENDS

The Cowboys have covered in every game of their current nine-game win streak after dropping their season opener to the Giants by one point. However, the Redskins are also 7-1 ATS in their last overall and have covered four straight against opponents with winning records. Washington has covered eight of its last nine in Dallas, and the road team is on an 8-1 ATS run in the series.

SPORTSLINE EXPERTS

SportsLine contributor Micah Roberts has a selection on the total of this game. Get his and all other SportsLine expert picks by clicking here.

SELECTION

In this space the past two weeks. I've made a case for fading the Cowboys, backing what appeared to be a strong situational spot for Pittsburgh and supporting Baltimore?s strong defense behind a full touchdown cushion.

Dallas made me pay dearly in both instances, so there's only one logical conclusion to draw this time ? I'm fading the Cowboys again.

You have to throw past results and superstition out the window when handicapping a game, and the Redskins just look too strong in current form to pass up taking a touchdown in this spot.