Green Bay Packers-Washington Redskins Picks Against the Spread

Senior analyst Larry Hartstein breaks down Packers-Redskins from a betting perspective and shares his strong recommendation for Sunday Night Football.

 

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-3, 49.5), Sun., 8:30 p.m. ET

The Redskins have won four of five, while the Packers have lost four of five entering their primetime showdown Sunday.

Sportsline Image
EXCLUSIVE TO SPORTSLINE PRO MEMBERS
Sun 11/20 8:30 PM EST
Green Bay +125 O/U 48.5
Washington -145 -3
C
C
C
GB
WAS
VIEW FULL GAME ANALYSIS
Get All Expert Picks Now for $9.99 a month

But Green Bay could get a huge lift from the possible return of outside linebacker Clay Matthews. In the four games he's missed, the Pack was shredded for 35.2 points per game; in the five games he's played, Green Bay gave up 19.2 points per game.

Expect Matthews to return from his hamstring injury, but potentially in a limited role.

That might not be enough to slow down Kirk Cousins. He's thrown for 720 yards and four touchdowns in the past two games and has averaged at least 7.7 yards per attempt in four straight.

Green Bay continued its desperate search for a running back by signing Christine Michael this week. He won't make an impact Sunday night even if he's active. James Starks will likely handle the bulk of the backfield work.

Pressure is mounting on coach Mike McCarthy and quarterback Aaron Rodgers as this team falls way short of its Super Bowl expectations. The Packers are 9-12 in its last 21 games.

However, they did dismantle these Redskins 35-18 in last year's playoffs and are 5-1-1 in the past seven meetings.

Washington has covered six of its past seven games. The Over has cashed in seven straight Redskins' home games.

LINE MOVEMENT

BookMaker.eu opened this game at Washington -2 and was dealing -3 as of Friday.

"We have wiseguys on both sides of this one thus far," BookMaker odds consultant Scott Cooley said. "The first action moved the spread to -2.5 and then -3, but then a couple of respected clients knocked out the +3.

"I know we'll see the public blindly back the Pack again this week, and the sharps faded Washington last week, so this could come back down toward the opener or lower by kickoff."

The total has been bet down from 51 to 49.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Larry combines a vast network of Vegas and offshore sources with an analytical approach he honed during his years working for Pro Football Focus. Larry specializes in the NFL. In 2015 he went 35-25-2 (58 percent) on NFL game picks, 3-1 on season win total plays and 4-1 on Super Bowl props. Larry correctly predicted Joe Philbin would be the first NFL coach fired -- at 15/1 odds -- and even nailed the week he'd be dismissed.