Philadelphia Eagles-New York Giants Picks Against the Spread

SportsLine analyst Josh Nagel previews and gives an ATS recommendation for Sunday's key NFC East showdown between the Giants and visiting Eagles, who share identical 4-3 records.

 

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT NEW YORK GIANTS (-2.5, O/U 43.5), Sun., 4 p.m. ET

The suddenly resurgent Giants host the reeling Eagles on Sunday in a critical game in the NFC East as the teams look to break a three-way tie for second place behind the Cowboys.

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Philadelphia +135 O/U 43
N.Y. Giants -155 -3
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VIEW FULL GAME ANALYSIS

New York used solid defense to overcome a double-figure deficit and beat the Rams in London last week, while the Eagles saw a mostly respectable defensive effort fade late as rookie quarterback Dak Prescott led the Cowboys to a dramatic comeback win in Dallas.

These are two of the better defensive clubs in the NFL, as Philadelphia ranks No. 5 in total defense and allows just 16.7 points per game. New York is No. 12 overall and allows 20.1 ppg.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Giants opened at -3 in most markets, but the spread moved off this key number after early bettors weighed in with their support of the Eagles.

Bookmaker.eu spokesman Scott Cooley said the game hasn?t seen significant smart action as of Thursday, but the majority of the money has come in on Philadelphia.

"The bettors just don?t believe in the Giants this year as they've been fading in quite a few games, including here," Cooley said.

LAST WEEK

The Giants overcame an early 10-point deficit against the Rams to pull off a 17-10 win in London as they used four interceptions to take control of the game after a sluggish start. They covered the closing line as a three-point favorite, and go their second straight win following a three-game losing streak.

Conversely, the Eagles gave their backers one of the worst bad beats of the NFL season at +5.5 against the Cowboys as they led by 10 in the fourth quarter but eventually fell 29-23 in overtime.

They passed on a late field-goal attempt in Dallas territory that would have made it a two-score game, and provided no resistance on the first drive in overtime as the Cowboys drove for the winning touchdown.

TRENDS

The Giants have covered their last four home games against opponents with winning records. The Over has hit four straight times between these teams in New York. The Eagles have covered eight of their last nine on the road against the Giants. The favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

SPORTSLINE EXPERTS

SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh has a strong selection the ATS outcome in this game. Get his and all other SportsLine expert picks by clicking here.

SELECTION

Both teams rank in the bottom third of total offense, but I think we'll see a breakout of sorts for both sides Sunday.

Eli Manning should be able to exploit a Philadelphia secondary that allowed 287 yards to Prescott last week.

Eagles rookie quarterback Carson Wentz has been criticized for his dink-and-dunk approach, evidence in just 202 yards on 32 completions last week. Even so, the offense was effective in consistently getting chunk yardage for first downs and long drives against Dallas.

The spread is a close call, but I'm picking this game to go Over with room to spare.