One horse will move one step closer to the Kentucky Derby when the starting gate opens in the 2025 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday outside Tampa, Fla. The Sam F. Davis 2025 will award Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top five finishers on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale, meaning the winner of the race will be on the brink of qualifying for the Run for the Roses. The Brian Lynch-trained Owen Almighty has been installed as the 2-1 favorite in the 2025 Sam F. Davis Stakes odds. John Hancock (3-1), Poster (4-1), Treaty of Rome (6-1) and Naughty Rascal (6-1) round out the top five choices among the 10 2025 Sam F. Davis Stakes horses. Post time is 5:14 p.m. ET. The latest 2025 Sam F. Davis Stakes forecast is calling for sunny skies.

With several accomplished horses set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you'll want to see what SportsLine writer Gene Menez, who crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Saturday, has to say before making any Sam F. Davis Stakes picks or horse racing predictions.

A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.

In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.

In May of last year, Menez gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Saturday for a $5,303 score! And just last week he hit the winner and exacta in the Holy Bull Stakes for a $422.50 payday. Anyone who followed his lead could have been way up.

For Saturday, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Sam F. Davis Stakes lineup, made his picks and constructed his tickets.

We can tell you that Menez is completely fading Owen Almighty, even though he is the 2-1 favorite. "I actually think Owen Almighty is a horse to watch on the Kentucky Derby trail, but 2-1 is too short to take on a horse who will be going two turns for the first time and will be facing other speed horses up front," Menez told SportsLine. Menez is not using Owen Almighty in any wagers.

Instead, Menez's top pick is a horse who "figures to have a hot early pace." He also is high on a double-digit longshot who is "projected to get to the front." Menez is including these horses in his 2025 Sam F. Davis Stakes bets, and so should you. You ABSOLUTELY NEED to see which horses they are before making any 2025 Sam F. Davis Stakes picks of your own.

So which horse wins the 2025 Sam F. Davis Stakes? What double-digit longshot is a must-back? And how has Menez constructed his wagers? ... Join SportsLine now to get the top 2025 Sam F. Davis Stakes picks and bets, all from the expert who gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby, crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Saturday for $5,303 and just hit the Holy Bull Stakes for a $422.50 payday!