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    2021 Alabama Stakes morning-line odds, picks: Racing insider offers bet strategy for Saturday's Grade 1 race

    Saratoga-based handicapper and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir has had multiple five-figure days at the track and crushed the exacta in the Tampa Bay Derby in March for $1,414. Now he targets the Alabama on Saturday at Saratoga
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    Kentucky Oaks winner Malathaat will try to get back to the winner's circle when she leaves the starting gate in one of the country's most prestigious races for 3-year-old fillies, the 2021 Alabama Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y. The Todd Pletcher trainee is the even-money morning-line favorite in the Alabama odds. Post time for the Grade 1 race is 6:13 p.m. ET. (Check out SportsLine's extensive horse racing coverage.)

    Saratoga Springs-based racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir has studied the race and formulated trifecta and superfecta wagers in his analysis below. A two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas, Weir has produced multiple five-figure days at the track. Earlier this year he hit the exacta in the Tampa Bay Derby for $1,414, and on July 18 he hit the late Pick 4 at Del Mar for $594.60. Those are just some of his scores in 2021.

    The Alabama has brought back several runners from the country's most prestigious 3-year-old race for fillies, the Kentucky Oaks. Five of the seven fillies in the Alabama ran in the Oaks on April 30 at Churchill Downs. In that race, Malathaat overcame a wide trip and grinded out a victory over Search Results.

    But Malathaat enters the Alabama coming off her only career loss. In the Coaching Club American Oaks, Malathaat was forced to set the early pace and could not hold off Maracuja in the stretch, finishing second. Malathaat will get a chance at revenge on Saturday.

    Weir has handicapped the Alabama field, made his picks and constructed his bets. 

    One surprise: Weir is low on Maracuja, who's the 7-2 second choice on the morning line. "Maracuja is a last-time-was-the-right-time horse and, with her odds slashed from 14-1 in the [Coaching Club American] Oaks to 7-2 on Saturday, she offers no value." Weir tells SportsLine. Weir likes five horses better than Maracuja. 

    Weir's top pick is a horse who "might appear vulnerable" based on her last race. He also is high on a double-digit long shot who "could offer some value underneath" and could surprise. Weir is including these horses in his 2021 Alabama bets, and so should you. You ABSOLUTELY need to see his picks before locking in any of your own!

    Based in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., Weir has been handicapping and following horse racing since reading Andy Beyer's landmark handicapping book "Picking Winners" in the late 1980s. Weir is highly invested in the Beyer Speed Figure, a number assigned to every race run by a horse that measures how fast the horse ran. He uses the figure as the backbone of his handicapping. In fact, thanks to his proficiency with speed figures and top-tier handicapping, he landed one of just eight spots on Beyer's figure-making team in 2017, a position he holds to this day.

    Weir's methodology has produced multiple five-figure days. In 2014, he hit a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar. The following year, he nailed a $31,000 Pick 6 at Gulfstream Park. In 2016 and 2017, Weir qualified for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas!

    Last year, his first for SportsLine, Weir was on fire. In June, Weir hit a $2 superfecta in the Ogden Phipps Stakes that paid a whopping $1,039. He crushed the exacta and trifecta in the Forego Stakes in August for $1,134.50. He hit the late Pick 4 at Belmont Park on June 18, June 19, June 25, July 2 and July 5, with the June 25 score returning a whopping $2,159.50.

    This year, he has hit the exacta in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, Tampa Bay Derby and Peter Pan Stakes, the trifecta in the Risen Star Stakes and Blue Grass Stakes and the superfecta in the Belmont Stakes, with the Tampa Bay Derby score returning $1,414! Those are just some of his scores in 2021.

    Who wins the 2021 Alabama? What double-digit long shot is a must-back? And how has Weir constructed his wagers?... Join SportsLine right now to get the top 2021 Alabama picks and bets, all from the racing insider who has been on fire!

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    SportsLine Staff

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