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Justin Perri
Justin Perri
Model Guy
Physics researcher turned sports data analyst, Justin is part of a new wave of sharp bettors who use predictive statistical modeling to find mathematical edges. His college basketball model debuted last season and returned $2,590 to $100 bettors (173-130, 57.1 percent). In the first weekend of March Madness, Justin went on an unheard-of 15-0 ATS tear. Now he has turned his attention -- and focused his algorithms -- on the 2021 baseball season. For Justin Perri media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
LAST 42 MLB PICKS
+513
Record: 23-18-1
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Washington 4 @ Arizona 11 | 05/16 | 12:10 AM UTC

Washington -121

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Joe Ross is sitting with a 4.26 ERA but 67 percent of the runs he has allowed came from a single run-in with the Cardinals. Today he faces the Diamondbacks in the desert with a red-hot offense behind him in some great hitting conditions. The Nationals have a Visual Memory Index similar to that of yesterday’s, when they scored 17 runs. The Diamondbacks are starting Seth Frankoff, who has thrown all of 4.2 innings in his career -- half coming in 2017. The Nats could quickly get out to a lead again against this inexperienced pitcher making his first ever start. I am backing the Nats in the desert tonight.

+513 23-18-1 IN LAST 42 MLB PICKS

N.Y. Yankees 8 @ Baltimore 2 | 05/15 | 11:05 PM UTC

Baltimore +147

LOSS

ANALYSIS: The Yankees figure to be without Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres and maybe even Gio Urshela tonight. Which really makes you wonder how the Orioles are still getting a +147 money line. I am sure people are going to be scared off by Jorge Lopez’s subpar 5.63 ERA, but the Yankees may only be able to get two lefthanded bats in the lineup against him. And I think the Orioles can win against Domingo German, who is allowing a .321 average against his fastball this year. Baltimore has already seen German this year too, so it wouldn’t shock me if the Orioles are able to beat him the second time around.

+513 23-18-1 IN LAST 42 MLB PICKS

Miami 6 @ L.A. Dodgers 9 | 05/15 | 2:10 AM UTC

L.A. Dodgers -1.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: I am very happy to get even money on the run line here, as this game looks like it could be an solid spot for L.A. The Dodgers have an OPS of .794 against righties compared to .667 against lefties and will see RHP Sandy Alcantara tonight. Clayton Kershaw takes the ball for the home team and is looking to build on his last successful start. The Marlins are coming up from Arizona after a win last night and will have a hard time seeing the ball with the climate change combined with Kershaw’s already tough-to-hit mechanics. Look for the Dodgers stud to keep Miami’s offense to a minimum. Play the spread.

+513 23-18-1 IN LAST 42 MLB PICKS

Oakland 6 @ Minnesota 1 | 05/15 | 12:10 AM UTC

OVER 8.5

LOSS

ANALYSIS: I was unhappy to see this line move to 9 before I could post the play, but it has come back down to 8.5 and I am not sure it will stay there. This game has some of the best weather statistics of the night and looks to be good conditions for the hitters on both of these plus offenses. A’s starter Frankie Montas is rocking a 5.50 ERA and 4.60 FIP, while Twins starter Matt Shoemaker has a 6.43 ERA and a 6.17 FIP. Those are some high numbers, and both pitchers had similar stats to the season last year so I don’t see much sample size bias. Shoemaker has already been lit up by the A’s this season too. Take the Over.

+513 23-18-1 IN LAST 42 MLB PICKS
+85 2-1 IN LAST 3 OAK O/U PICKS

Cincinnati 8 @ Colorado 13 | 05/14 | 12:40 AM UTC

OVER 11

WIN

ANALYSIS: This line opened at 10.5 and still is on the move. I could see this closing even higher. With a huge weather boost, facing Chi Chi Gonzalez might just be too easy for the Reds. They were cold for a bit, but their offense is heating up again, and the air at Coors Field should only help them pile up the runs. Colorado is much better at home and can be expected to contribute to the total. Let’s get this before it closes higher.

+513 23-18-1 IN LAST 42 MLB PICKS
+60 4-3-2 IN LAST 9 CIN O/U PICKS