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Justin Perri
Justin Perri
Model Guy
Physics researcher turned sports data analyst, Justin is part of a new wave of sharp bettors who use predictive statistical modeling to find mathematical edges. His college basketball model debuted last season and returned $2,590 to $100 bettors (173-130, 57.1 percent). In the first weekend of March Madness, Justin went on an unheard-of 15-0 ATS tear. For Justin Perri media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
LAST 46 CBB ATS PICKS
+930
Record: 28-17-1
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Miami (Fla.) 63 @ Penn St. 58 | 12/02 | 2:15 AM UTC

Penn St. -3

LOSS

ANALYSIS: This number has dropped and I liked it when it was all the way at -4.5. The model has this as a 7.5-point game, so we're getting a big amount of value on the home team here. Neither team has looked great against the spread, but Miami has had some bad losses. I think that the Nittany Lions get this one done.

+930 28-17-1 IN LAST 46 CBB ATS PICKS

Missouri St. 74 @ Illinois St. 79 | 12/02 | 1:00 AM UTC

Missouri St. -6.5

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Missouri State is a top-75 ranked program in most projection models, while Illinois State is outside the top 200, so 6.5 seems to be a bit of a small spread here. My model makes this a 10-point game between these teams, even with the Bears playing on the road against the Redbirds. Missouri has covered three of its last four and is looking to stay in form. Lay the points.

+930 28-17-1 IN LAST 46 CBB ATS PICKS

So. Miss 55 @ South Alabama 85 | 12/02 | 1:00 AM UTC

South Alabama -6.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: This is a bad Southern Miss team that really should be bigger underdogs here. It is also South Alabama's home opener, and they've managed to cover in all but their first match this year. I'm just not sure why this isn't bigger, as there's a good chance South Alabama runs away with this by a double-digit margin. My numbers have this at a 9.5-point spread, so you're getting good value with the home favorite.

+930 28-17-1 IN LAST 46 CBB ATS PICKS

Duke 66 @ Ohio St. 71 | 12/01 | 2:30 AM UTC

Ohio St. +2

WIN

ANALYSIS: This is a contrarian play, as there's going to be a good number of bettors rushing to take the team that just beat Gonzaga. However, we just saw Gonzaga struggle against Tarleton on Monday and, if you remember the game between Duke and the Zags, there was a good amount of foul trouble for Gonzaga. Just something to consider. Bottom line, this is a decent letdown spot for Duke coming off a big win. Grab the points with Ohio State at home.

+930 28-17-1 IN LAST 46 CBB ATS PICKS

Northwestern 73 @ Wake Forest 77 | 12/01 | 2:00 AM UTC

Northwestern +1.5

LOSS

ANALYSIS: The model has the wrong team favored and thinks the Wildcats edge this one out by a point. Wake Forest looks to have the money on its side but this line still came down from +2 overnight. Both teams have played a bit of a weak schedule to open the year. Wake has failed to cover against both LSU and Oregon St in its last two games and Northwestern should pose a similar challenge.

+930 28-17-1 IN LAST 46 CBB ATS PICKS