Matt's Picks (3 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
Do I love this? No. But a Cubs Friday matinee, well that's when I know it's the weekend. Time for pool, a brew and Ryne Sandberg to homer twice. I may be showing my age. Paul Skenes is obviously awesome, and I'll touch on this in today's newsletter, but Pittsburgh's offense is so bad. I think we need to take Cubs +1.5 at home when we can similar to Yankees, Dodgers and maybe 1-2 others as it's fairly rare. And the Cubs have seen Skenes plenty.
The Oilers might have a goaltending issue again and haven't named their starter yet -- if you aren't sure who your starting goalie is in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final is, you have a problem. And the team's best forward not named Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, is not healthy. He was a game-time call for Game 3 and played but was a complete non-factor. He's a GTC again tonight. Florida can become only the fifth team in the past 40 years to win three straight games in back-to-back Finals. The Panthers can also become the sixth team in NHL history to score five or more goals in three straight games during a Stanley Cup Final.
The Royals nearly had a late comeback yesterday to cover the +1.5 but couldn't pull it off. I will go back to it tonight, though, as I am not high on Yanks pitcher Will Warren -- he has a 6.54 road ERA. I also wonder if the Yankees are peeking ahead to Friday night and their first visit this season to rival Boston -- especially after losing two of three to the Red Sox last weekend at Yankee Stadium. KC's Seth Lugo has a 3.10 home ERA. He's a rare guy Aaron Judge doesn't hit well career: 1-for-14 with five Ks. How about resting AJ tonight? Jazz Chisholm has left B2B games with groin tightness, so I can't imagine he's in the lineup.
The Giants' Jung Hoo Lee is leading off today against arguably the worst pitcher in the majors in Antonio Senzatela (1-10, 6.68 ERA). First pitch is at 3:10 ET, so this might cash by 3:12 or so. Lee has now recorded at least one hit in four of his last five games, slashing .357/.474/.714 with five runs scored over that span. He's 1-for-3 career off Senzatela.
The Mets have won five straight, four of those by multiple runs. Ace Kodai Senga has a 1.13 ERA in six home starts and 0.93 in five day starts. He also had a quality start in DC on April 25. Washington's Michael Soroka has a 5.85 road ERA and both Juan Soto (6-for-10, 2 HR) and Pete Alonso (4-for-12, HR) have good splits off him. Meanwhile, Nats slugger James Wood is in a mega-slump at .167 this month even after two hits last night in another loss.
The Thunder have done a great job on Tyrese Haliburton this season dating to the regular season, but I expect TH to attempt more than the 13 shots he has in each of the first two games of the Finals -- and he did top this number (barely) in Game 2. He easily topped 16.5 points in each home game in the East Finals, although obviously OKC is a much better defensive team than New York is. Our model has Haliburton at 20.5 points Wednesday.
It's one of the Royals' marquee home series of the year, and they were embarrassed in the opener Tuesday. I expect a much better effort Wednesday. Absolutely not sold on K.C. lefty Kris Bubic, who leads the majors with a 1.43 ERA that is a franchise record through the first 12 starts of a season. At home, his ERA is 1.38. But we'll ride while Bubic is rolling. He pitched decent at Yankee Stadium on April 16 in a no-decision. New York's Clarke Schmidt has a 4.79 road ERA. Jazz Chisholm is likely out after leaving Tuesday with neck soreness. Top Royals setup man Lucas Erceg is expected to be activated off the IL.
Pittsburgh was my only miss in five plays yesterday, so the Bucs owe me. Miami hasn't won back-to-back games since May 24-25. Starting pitcher Cal Quantrill has a 6.75 road ERA. A couple of Marlins regulars (Sanchez, Stowers) are out because the Pirates are starting a lefty in Bailey Falter (3.12 home ERA). The Fish rank 19th in OPS vs. lefties. Pittsburgh had been playing well before the bats went quiet yesterday. All the regulars are in.
The Halos were good to us last night. Wasn't sure I would go back to them, but the Athletics' best hitter, shortstop and AL Rookie of the Year favorite Jacob Wilson, has been scratched. This season, the Angels are 28-9 when scoring 4+ runs in a game, and I see no reason why they don't get to four tonight against Mitch Spence & Co. Since May 19, the Angels bullpen has a 2.78 ERA that is third in the AL. Los Angeles has won six straight in this series dating to last season.
Heliot Ramos is a fine player batting .294 on the year and obviously you throw in the Coors Field factor. But Ramos isn't Tony Gwynn, so this is a crazy cheap number for two hits even though it wouldn't shock if Ramos gets two. He has not faced Rox rookie starter Carson Palmquist.
There aren't many players being ruled out where I'd go fade their team immediately, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is one for the Blue Jays. They lost the other game he didn't start on April 10 in Boston, managing just three runs. Can't say I love the full-game or F5 total even with him out so will play this while the Cards are still getting +1.5. I like Jays starter Chris Bassitt, but his road splits aren't good. And we don't even need a win here.
Washington's MacKenzie Gore has been absolutely dealing in three straight starts with just one earned run allowed over that span, but the Mets' Griffin Canning has a 2.90 ERA on the season and the lineups aren't close. Gore doesn't have great career splits in the series. New York has the fewest home losses in MLB, and the Nats are 15-17 away.