Matt's Picks (1 Live)
The Braves got shellacked Monday by Miami but also were in the tricky post-Sunday Night Baseball spot. And one bright spot was that Atlanta really hasn't had to use any key relievers in a few games (starter Chris Sale was dominant Sunday night), so in great shape in the pen. That group may not be needed too much Tuesday if Reynaldo Lopez keeps dealing with a 1.15 ERA through three starts. On the flip side, Miami's Max Meyer holds a 7-11 career mark and 5.12 ERA in his three-plus seasons in the Show. The Braves hit him around a bit in his lone start against them in 2025. The Marlins are only 2-5 away. The SL Model has Atlanta winning quite easily.
I'm not betting the Yankees at a high ML again tonight after they gave me ulcers, a heart murmur and other physical maladies (like an episode of the Pitt) from last night's crazy, crazy win. I had about 4 different things I was ready to break if they blew multiple three-plus-run leads and lost. Boy is their bullpen bad. It was taxed last night, so they will need Ryan Weathers for some length here, and he went an excellent eight innings and 101 pitches last time out vs. the A's. The Yanks hammered one meh Angels southpaw last night early and I can see that again Tuesday vs. Reid Detmers (0-1, 4.60 ERA).
As you may be aware, we don't have Yes or No First Run Inning prop on-site capability yet (can post in Discord), but hopefully soon. So I'm going to take this on Cubs opener Riley Martin because essentially it is NRFI, but just on the Phillies. The 28-year-old rookie is a lefty so it makes sense to open him against Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. And in three "opens" this year, Martin hasn't allowed a run yet. I just don't want him to go more than an inning is all. Winds are blowing out so that's not ideal but still have to try it.
Hard to find a team with too much to play for this early in an MLB season, but Monday back home sure feels like a spot the Yankees are going to treat a bit different than a typical mid-April game having lost five straight and rumors flying about Aaron Boone being the first manager canned. Unless the other New York manager (Carlos Mendoza) gets fired first, that is. Quite enjoying all the bad baseball in Gotham. Just not Monday in this case please. I could definitely see Aaron Judge going yard off struggling Angels lefty Yusei Kikuchi (0-2, 6.75). Think Yanks not bat bottom nine would be a solid alternative to knock this number down a bit.
Simply a lineup play as no Jeremy Pena or Carlos Correa for Houston. Seattle starting pitcher Logan Gilbert had terrific 2025 splits vs. the Astros. Note that these two play again Monday in a matinee, and I'll write up something on that tomorrow in the newsletter/CBS with a play(s).
I was curious what the F5 total would be with the game total as low as 6 at some books in a matchup of former Cy Young winners in Sandy Alcantara and Tarik Skubal -- both of whom I'd like the Cubs to trade for with the (devastating) Cade Horton injury. Tarik won't be dealt, but I could see Sandy going somewhere. It has warmed up a little in Motown but winds appear to be blowing in from right field. Skubal wasn't great last time out but it's his home debut, and his 2025 home and day splits were sensational. Alcantara has allowed only two earned runs all season.
The wrong team is favored Sunday and it's that simple. So I'll take the gift even at this number. And if it was a newsletter writing day for me, this would be a hammer parlay leg at +1.5. I don't get it. Yes, the Twins have played better than expected so far and yes Taj Bradley has been really good. But this is one of those spots where the defending AL champions need a win because a major tough roadie is up next. I do believe in those sorts of things. And the Jays are off Monday and the Twins not so that may affect the bullpens a bit. I think you are fine playing +1 (or ML) but I'll take the gift.
Decent price considering it's the Rockies away. We are getting a not-bad number due to it being Padres pitcher German Marquez, who had spent the first 10 seasons of his MLB career with Colorado. So I suppose the Rox have a good scouting report on him, but they are still mostly trash. If they won 30 road games in 2026 it'd be a surprise. I wouldn't mind -1 here ...
My dawg Janson Junk is on the mound for Miami and while I certainly do not know him personally, I just imagine he is a tough hombre because you know he had to fight his way through the childhood playgrounds with that moniker. Sorry Junkster, but I'll be playing the Tigers a lot at home in 2026. And a Casey Mize guy. At least in Detroit. The former No. 1 overall pick tends to get a bit wacky away sometimes. It's his first home start of 2026.
Perhaps I got into Walter White's stash or something but this feels low. Do I know why? Sure I do. It's Patrick Corbin Day. But I can't overlook that the Blue Jays are better everywhere else. Corbin actually wasn't horrific in 2025 whereas the previous couple of years he was an auto-fade and a fun meme. Not sure I play this against many foes but not very high on the Twins.
Wow Cubs really? To Carmen Mlodzinski? Freaking shut out at home?!?! Honestly may not happen again in 2026. Total absurdity, but that's baseball for you. No Corbin Carroll again for Arizona, and he's one of those guys who can make a pitcher super-uncomfortable at the plate and on base. The Snakes had to play Thursday and the Phillies did not so an extra edge. Great spot for -1 but not a terrible ML price.
The Marlins are decent, but I believe that 8-5 record is built on a soft schedule and mostly at home. The one roadie, the Fish lost two of three. I can give you stats, but I'm more of a "feel" guy. That sounds creepy but you get it. Almost an urgency spot already for Detroit on five-game skid but starting a homestand. Not a huge fan of starting pitcher Keider Montero but less one of Miami's Chris Paddack. I don't normally quote weather on a side play, but it'll be cold in Motown and as someone who used to live up North, cold just don't feel good anymore coming from Florida. I am currently wearing multiple sweatshirts as the missus likes the AC at 72.
So I am meh on SportsLine MLB picks so far but please check out my CBS Sports plays because then I get to manipulate numbers -- doing quite well via those SGPs with alts. And I have one for this game. But I'm fine with Cubs ML straight. Shota Imanaga has utterly owned the Bucs career. The Cubbies better take advantage of missing Pittsburgh's two best pitchers in this series, although I moved to Bears camp news with the crushing Cade Horton injury. Not sure crushing is enough.
The White Sox pretended to be decent there for a minute but off being swept three at home vs. Baltimore and also 1-5 away. Anthony Kay starts Thursday on the mound and, well, he's a 31-year-old journeyman for a reason with a career 5.44 ERA. But I'm told he keeps a really nice yard. The always-dependable Seth Lugo has been great for the Royals at 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA in two outings. He held a 2.31 ERA last year in 11.2 innings vs. Chicago. This would be a spot where I'd play -1 if offered, but it may close around -200 so not too bad of value straight up.