Matt's Picks (5 Live)
Again, there might be a few NHL playoff games I will not play Under 6.5, but all I can say to you is play them frequently if offered. We shall lose a couple on 3-3 regulation, I'm sure, (why my CBS Sports parlays always punched to 7.5), but 2-0 Saturday Unders and they weren't even close. You will come out ahead and the sportsbooks will stop offering U6.5s. Certainly can't promise anything here but I'm surprised not 6. Books don't like pushes, either, but you get my point. The Knights' Carter Hart has a 1.66 GAA in April.
Likely a bonkers atmosphere in Buffalo on Sunday (diehard hockey fans are crazy anyways, and I mean that as an utter compliment) as the franchise plays its first postseason game since 2011. Believe I still had a BlackBerry then; highly recommend the BlackBerry movie, by the way, about its staggering fall. Very good. Ideally, the Sabres aren't too amped up because that can backfire but Boston was nine below .500 away during the RS if we include OT/SO losses. Jeremy Swayman's road splits were considerably worse. Buffalo was 26-10-5 on home ice.
If there is a total of 6.5 in the Stanley Cup playoffs, I am almost surely playing Under and so should you. Really that simple. Think have made that clear enough now, so won't repeat. This is my favorite first-round series and would a 4-4 tie at the end of regulation surprise me? It would not. But neither would 2-2. Two of the three openers Saturday were easy Under 6.5 winners. And funnily enough, the one I wasn't even offered in Wild-Stars (6) landed Over, so that worked out nicely. Pretty flukish, though, and I'll have a SGP on the CBS Sports betting site for that Game 2 on Monday.
Regular season? Not touching this. To quote Jerry Lundegaard (Fargo -- amazingly good): "Heck you mean?" In the playoffs basically even money to just lose in overtime? Yep, I am taking that. I could give you many examples of No. 1 overall seeds where they kinda coasted to the end and were sloppy in Game 1 of a playoff series because they hadn't played a meaningful game in weeks. Presidents' Trophy winners like the Avs oddly have had first-round issues in recent years. Thing is, +1.5 is so cheap I think upping to +2 to avoid empty-net pain would be a great idea.
I put a post-it on my computer to remind myself: Sundays are wacky in MLB (and take vitamins). I'll be honest in that I don't like this all that much so will do a half. But I can't not play something with how truly broken the Mets are. If it was anyone but Javier Assad starting for the Cubs -- even someone named Bartman (been able to joke about that without crying since 2016 anyways) -- then we crush. But obviously it wouldn't be so cheap. And that's really all this is. I would like to see the New York tabloid headlines with the Mets' on an 11-game skid coming home. Don't know all the NY-area waterways but guessing a spin on Ocean's Eleven.
If not Sunday? Probably not. To be clear, this is a flier not a prediction. The Giants clearly have the starting pitching edge with Robbie Ray over 77-year-old Miles Mikolas, whom I think is a mummy at this point (pick your mummy version; didn't know until just now there was a new movie). But a lot of intangibles are against SF today. Among them: End of a long trip and the first meeting of the season with the hated Dodgers next. It's funny, bullpens usually scorch me because I often play favorites. Now I get to root for a potential reliever implosion on SF. And that pen is taxed, so Ray Over 17.5 outs might not be a bad idea.
Arguably the most important worldwide sporting event today, and I'm going to watch in a non-major soccer event rarity: Man City keeps its Premier League title hopes alive (surging) with a win, and Arsenal all but locks it up with one (slumping). Everything seems to line up for the Sky Blues. The Gunners are on a short week after a UCL match and banged up led by second-leading scorer Bukayo Saka (that's fun to say) sitting out. Arsenal has scored three goals in the past five in all competitions. And for some reason, thank you BBC, leading scorer Viktor Gyökeres is not starting. I may pummel Man City DNB simply as like protection but I'm not gonna post that at -270. This is totally fine.
Das Boot! My Bundesliga play Saturday failed. Why did I previously refuse to bet this sport? Absurd statistical domination that does not matter at all. FC Union Berlin outshot its terrible road opponent Wolfsburg 25-5 and out-cornered 11-4 and still lost. OK. I do like this Sunday one better -- and that the excellent Martin Green is also on it is a boost. Was thinking about a half but now will bet to win. Certainly seems a fair price considering Heidenheim is the worst team in the league by far. Freiburg's only loss in the past six is to maybe the best team in the world in Bayern Munich. And yet the Breisgau Brazilians (that's interesting, sounds like a 1980s all-female band) aren't -1?
Don't like any of the NBA playoff spreads today and really no playable moneylines not in a parlay so we'll take a half-unit shot here. If you have followed me over the years, I rarely bet a game total Over. Not really sure why. Guess I believe it's easier to miss shots/miss pitches, etc., than it is to succeed against fellow professionals. And obviously any major injuries to stars in-game. The Lakers clearly will struggle to score without Luka and AR, but this is quite low in the modern NBA even for the slower postseason. Could be a rout and if so, that's when teams forget about defense. Our model has this clearing Over by 11 points.
Had planned to be done today assuming the Twins and Cubs won. Alas, a wash as the Minny bullpen choked. I'm coming up with a new term for bullpen in future picks because it makes my skin crawl. "Asparagus" is in the lead as that also grosses me out. It's sad the state of Toronto's Max Scherzer these days. Hey, if I can get $15 million I'm not retiring, either. But the former Diamondback and lock first-ballot HOFer looks utterly shot with a 9.58 ERA. And it's ace Zac Gallen for the Snakes, so this seems a quite fair price. The Arizona lineup gets a big boost with the activation off IL and season debut of former All-Star (and Blue Jay) Lourdes Gurriel.