Matt's Picks (5 Live)
Went a half on the Mets on Tuesday because while I thought they had a good chance of winning, I wanted to see the Citi Field crowd if they hit 12 defeats in a row. They did, by blowing a three-run lead. But, yep, I'm ready to get my hand caught in the cookie jar again for a half-unit. Juan Soto is back and Clay Holmes is off to a fine start on the mound with a 1.96 ERA. If the Mets can't avoid 13 in a row against a Twins rookie named Connor Prielipp in his MLB debut .... then there is some Mamdani-related demon curse (haven't won since the mayor hugged Mr. Met or something), and they need to call Father Damien Karras.
While the Blue Jays are going for the sweep, they are at the end of a long trip out west and likely without closer Jeff Hoffman and at least one key setup guy. Starter Eric Lauer is 1-3 with a 7.13 ERA. Seems like an awful spot for what is the better team. But we rather buried the lede: It's the unhittable Jose Soriano for the Halos. He absolutely can't continue at near this pace with one dang run allowed thus far but in a good spot to get a sixth victory already. Will have more on Soriano in the newsletter.
Houston was utterly stagnant last game offensively without Kevin Durant but all sings are pointing to him playing tonight. Even with all those struggles, the Rockets and Lakers combined for 205 points in the opener. So you'd sure think getting to 207 wouldn't be that hard if KD returns -- the model has 216 points. I'm starting to see some totals moving up so better grab it now. Half unit like all totals.
Thought the Twins would be my AL auto-fade on the road this season, but it's apparently the White Sox yet again. Not that I'll exactly be backing them at home, either. Tonight's starting pitcher Sean Burke was winless with a 4.74 ERA in 12 total appearances away last year (eight starts) and got clocked in his lone road start in 2026. Arizona's Merrill Kelly is usually good for a quality start(ish) and only a couple of Pale Hose have seen him career. These lineups aren't close -- Corbin Carroll will start despite leaving Sunday with a minor injury. The Snakes (7-3 at home) try to avoid B2B losses for the first time in nearly three weeks. They should.
Pretty decent chance I come back and play the moneyline as Vegas still hasn't lost in regulation under John Tortorella. But the Under 6.5 is an auto-play in this series anyways (not going to in any of the other three Tuesday). Three of the six goals in Vegas' 4-2 win in Game 1 were in the third period. There were definitely some empty-net worries, but that's the risk. That's now six straight outings allowing two goals or fewer for Knights goalie Carter Hart -- an afterthought earlier this season.
What a truly great hockey game this matchup was Sunday. I thought our Sabres play was toast down 2-0 with about eight minutes left, that's for sure. But then the playoff newbies woke up offensively in electric fashion. That go-ahead goal, the crowd just went utterly bananas and the building was shaking. I don't care about either of these teams, but would like to have been in attendance for the club's first playoff game in so long. Really same drill here. The Bruins have not been that good away this season (10 games under .500) and neither has No. 1 goalie Jeremy Swayman. Buffalo did dominate the opener for the most part, outshooting the B's 38-20 and out-hitting them 53-38.
I wrote something longer on the Mets via the CBS Sports betting site but maybe the worm is about to turn on an 11-game skid. They got a pitching change to their benefit tonight with the Twins shifting to Simeon Woods Richardson (0-3, 6.10 ERA) opposite NY stud Nolan McLean. And now apparently Juan Soto is back Wednesday. So it's time to start a winning streak Tuesday. Although it'd be fun to hear all the noise at Citi Field if the Twins score like 6 in the top of the first with "fuhgaddeaboutitt!" likely being the least offensive thing coming from the stands. So I'll limit this to a half then so I can at least half-enjoy it if that happens.
Houston got only its third win in the past 15 overall and second road win of the year (in 11 tries) on Monday but also was facing a weak link in the Cleveland rotation. That's certainly not the case here in stellar rookie lefty Parker Messick (3-0, 1.05 ERA). Needless to say, he's not keeping that up and did throw a lot of pitches last time out in taking a no-no into the ninth. But until he starts failing. Appears to be the weak link in the Houston rotation in 29-year-old rookie Ryan Weiss (0-2, 6.75 ERA).
Big one Tuesday for both clubs' European chances next season. Chelsea is in utter free-fall; if we throw out an FA Cup win over an overmatched lower-tier side Port Vale early this month, the Blues have lost five in a row vs. peers (one Champions League game, four EPL) and not scored a goal. For sure out here is rising young star Estevao (2G, 2A in 22 EPL games), and leading scorer Joao Pedro (14G, 5A in 28 games) is in major doubt after missing the last game. Brighton is unbeaten in its past four league games, and the Seagulls have won two straight EPL games vs. Chelsea, as many as they had won in their previous 19 matches in the series.
Now this series, I don't think I'll play any Under 6.5s. Two terrific offensive teams and not super-trustworthy goalies. It's is the last one to open. Edmonton has certainly flipped a switch the past two postseasons in reaching back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals. And Leon Draisaitl is expected back from his injury, which is obviously huge. The Ducks are playoff newbies and I do think that matters, especially in a Game 1 away. Lukas Dostal (his playoff debut) had a 4.06 GAA in two regular-season meetings vs. Edmonton. Anaheim slumped big-time down the stretch. I'm simply incapable of playing -1.5 in the NHL postseason (if ever) so instead will up the wager.